Everything Ulster - Election 2005

As promised last night, here's my thoughts on yeserday's results. Apologies for not getting more on the site, but as I explained, I was otherwise engaged from about 6:30 that night until late on. This will not be scientific, but if you want number crunching, the BBC has a summary of results.

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The SDLP took south Belfast thanks to a split Unionist vote. I'm not bitter, in fact I'm sure McDonnell would, in balance, make a better MP than Spratt would have. I'm glad the SDLP weren't completely wiped out, although still wish they'd provided the electorate with a choice by at least considering forming a voluntary coalition. That aside, McDonnell will know he's on borrowed time and will survive only as long as the Unionist vote is split. As I said yesterday, I think a lot of Ulster Unionists will have been scared into voting for Spratt because of the way the DUP fought the campaign, going by my own area anyway. If the Ulster Unionists get their act together in time for the next election this could well be an Ulster Unionist seat again.

While Sinn Fein won an extra seat in Newry & South Armagh, they lost Foyle to Mark Durkan, bringing me in a few quid, and the Labour majority was reduced to 66 - bringing me in a few more

You'll have guessed I'm disappointed at the UUP losing out so badly, down to a single seat in North Down. My disappointment isn't because of any love for the UUP, but because the DUP campaign was fought almost exclusively on sermons of soundbites about "The Unionist people getting up off their knees" or the "end of pushover Unionism" and "100 years of treachary". What's worse is that hey had all obviously decided on the same soundbites as David Simpson managed to get "the end of pushover Unionism" into his victory speech.

Conversely, the Ulster Unionist candidates were mostly gracious in defeat. Roy Beggs and David Trimble were two of the speeches I heard where they were obviously disappointed but said they'd take the opportunity to spend more time with their families, for example. Lady Hermon was a good winner, not at all like the gloating and billowing and "day of reckoning" speeches coming from the likes of the DUP's William McCrea, Paisley or even Robinson, who I had held in higher regard than most of his party colleagues up until his speech (how many times did he mention God?).

The other thing that distresses me about the DUP is that they hate everyone. They hate Sinn Fein obviously, but the venom with which they've attacked the Ulster Unionists over the last few months has been on the verge of psychopathic. Like most far-right parties, their supporters seem vehemently angry with the world and have this attitude that they're a chosen people of some kind who have a divine duty to carry out the cleansing of Ulster.

Something that struck me last night, in my drunken state after 1:00 AM, is that while the election was seen as a disaster for the UUP, winning only one seat, they still won a larger share of the vote (17.7%) than the SDLP who won 3 (with 17.5%). The DUP polled double the Ulster Unionists and won 9 seats. This finally illustrated to me the flaws of a first-past-the-post electoral system when there are so many competing parties. I'm not going into an in-depth analysis of alternative systems now, just to say that I think this one is inadequate and that I think anything that involved transfers would benefit the more central parties slightly.

But enough about that.

Where does Northern Ireland go from here? Sinn Fein keep telling themselves that the DUP will do a deal, almost as if they believe that if they keep saying it enough then it will come true. Meanwhile the DUP give the distinct impression that they should govern Northern Ireland themselves, probably direct from Paisley's pulpit.

Just how long can this stalemate last? The problem is that Direct Rule suits both the DUP and Sinn Fein. The DUP see keeping power in London as a perfect way to keep Sinn Fein out of government and keep Ulster British. Sinn Fein secretly love direct rule because it allows them to continue to peddle the idea that Northern Ireland is a "failed statelet" and that the way to solve that is to create an all-Ireland socialist republic (simple, eh! We'll just send those million or so Unionists back to Britain - there are other parties in Britain with repatriation policies after all).

I don't see much happening at all in the near future. There'll be a lot of posturing for the first few months - Robinson has already been demanding the DUP be given places in the House of Lords! Gerry will continue with his "the DUP will do a deal" speeches for some time yet. Like most Sinn Fein messages, the truth doesn't necessarily have to come into it.

What do the SDLP do? Their party seems to be divided between the Durkans and the McDonnells/McGradys. Given that the latter now outnumber the former in Parliament, is it time they considered giving up on out-Irishing Sinn Fein to get back to what they do best? They were born from a civil rights movement supporting equality, yet they have let Sinn Fein claim the equality agenda as their own, taking credit for all the SDLP achieved under John Hume and Seamus Mallon. They want safer streets, free from paramilitary gangs and hoods - and realise that the best way to get this is with an accountable, balanced police service. There is a place for the SDLP in Northern Ireland but it is not as Sinn Fein's sidekicks.

Quite clearly it wasn't a good day for the Ulster Unionists and certainly not for David Trimble. It's obvious that many of the people of Northern Ireland have turned their backs on him and even though I admire what he did for his country, I think it's time to pass the baton of leadership to someone new. If the Ulster Unionist party is to come back it must seek a new direction - apathy is not the friend of the UUP and people are getting bored with the "same old same old" where come election time the Unionists try to out-British each other. Get some real policies and real, fresh ideas. Do something new. Don't let the work of the last decade be ruined by Sinn Fein/DUP bigotry and narrow-mindedness.

Hopefully while the politicians continue to squabble, the ordinary people can get on with building relationships between communities and individuals of "the other persuasion" - because if we wait for our political "leaders" to sort something out we could all be long dead without ever seeing any progress.