Everything Ulster - Election 2005

NORTH Down has the 3rd lowest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland with just 85,992 and a 2001 electorate of 62,212. The outgoing MP is Lady Sylvia Hermon of the Ulster Unionists, who is again contesting the seat. North Down is traditionally a good seat for non-mainstream unionists, presumably because the chances of the seat going to a nationalist candidate are slim with a catholic population of just 9%.

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History
Jim Kilfedder represented the constituency as an independent Unionist (in later days as a member of UPUP, almost a one-man party) from 1979 to 1995, when he passed away while still in office. In the by-election, Bob McCartney (UKUP – also a tiny party) won the seat with a majority of 1,429 and he held it in the 1997 General Election. In 2001, however, he lost out to Lady Sylvia Hermon (UUP) by 7,324 votes. In both elections the DUP stood aside to give McCartney a free run on an anti-agreement ticket. The seat has also been (relatively) strong for the Conservatives, gaining 5% in 1997 and 815 votes (2.2% - still their best NI result that year) in 2001.
The Alliance have been strong in all elections since the forum elections in 1996 (17%) but didn’t stand in 2001’s Westminster election and only polled 9% in 2003’s assembly elections. They’ll be hoping to claw back some votes to return closer to the 21% of 1997.

Unionist Candidates
Lady Sylvia Hermon (UUP) is the wife of a former RUC Chief Constable and boasts a record of voting more times in Westminster than any other MP from Northern Ireland, and was also nominated Backbencher of the Year and Opposition Politician of the Year. Answering criticism from the DUP, she states that her record on scrutinising Northern Ireland legislation is better than the combined work of all the DUP MPs!
The DUP are running Peter Weir, who defected to from the Ulster Unionists 3 years ago next Friday, against Lady Hermon. Bob McCartney has agreed to stand aside on the premise that the DUP don’t share power with Sinn Fein for "a generation" or "25 years" depending who you ask. His main criticism of Lady Hermon (except the fact that she’s an Ulster Unionist) is that she has voted too often with Tony Blair. Given that so much of the DUP vote comes from the working classes, you’d think that would be a positive from their point of view, but alas this is politics, and Northern Ireland politics at that.

Nationalist Candidates
There hardly seems much point really, lets be honest. In 2001 the SDLP polled 3% and Sinn Fein 1% and their combined vote, even in PR elections, has never risen above 6% since 1996. In fact, the Conservatives have regularly outpolled Sinn Fein in every election since 1996, on one occasion outpolling the SDLP as well (not including the local government elections of 1997 or 2001 where neither the SDLP nor Sinn Fein stood).
Anyway, the SDLP are standing William Logan, of whom I can find no mention on the internet saying anything more than the fact he is standing! At the same time Sinn Fein will be staning Janet McCrory. I can’t find anything about her either. Neither candidate has stood in a previous election in the constituency, and I can’t be bothered hunting any further to find something out – lets face it neither of them has a pup’s chance.

Other Candidates
The Alliance are fielding David Alderdice OBE, a Belfast City councillor for the Victoria ward. The Alliance polled well between 1996 and 2001 (local government, they stood aside in Westminster for Sylvia Hermon) getting between 14% and 21% of the vote, but their Assembly candidate in 2003, Eileen Bell, only just scraped in with 9% of 1st preference votes. Alderdice will be looking to claw that vote back up to above 10%, but with a battle between the Unionist parties, he could lose votes to Hermon.
This is usually one of the stronger constituencies for the Conservatives, especially when they won 7% of the vote in 1997’s council elections. However, since then their vote has trailed off to 1-2% and this year’s candidate, Julian Robertson will be hoping to build on his 2.2% from 2001 this time round. Incidentally, Julian has previously posted on this site and I sincerely wish him the best of luck.
Christopher Carter is also standing as "Ulster’s Independent Voice," however in 2001 he only polled 444 votes/1.2% (just over half the Conservative vote) and in 2003 only 109 (0.4%).

Prediction
Lady Sylvia Hermon UUP hold (~ 45%)

Statistics

Westminster
2001: UUP 56% - UKUP 36%
1997: UUP 31% - UKUP 35% - Alliance 21%

Assembly
2003: DUP 23% - UUP 32% - UKUP 12% - Alliance 9%
1998: DUP 7% - UUP 33% - UKUP 22% - Alliance 14%