Everything Ulster - Election 2005

Few conclusions in this year's election in Northern Ireland are more forgone than the result in North Antrim. With the biggest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland, Weighing in with 101,000+ constituents, North Antrim had a 2001 electorate of 74,451. This has been Ian Paisley's seat for 35 years since he was elected MP in 1970 (as an MP of the Protestant Unionist Party, later becoming the DUP) and it doesn't seem likely to change now, in what many believe will be his final election.

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History
The North Antrim constituency was created in 1950 and has always been a Unionist seat. Since 1970, Ian Paisley has been the MP, in the most recent election attracting 50% of the vote. There does seem to be an increasing Sinn Fein vote in the area in recent years as their vote grew from 6% in 1997 to 10% in 2001. The SDLP /Ulster Unionist vote has recently remained constant, with the SDLP coming in at around 15%, and the Ulster Unionists, with the exception of the 1997 local government elections, hovering between 20% and 25%. The Alliance vote has declined from 6% 9 years ago, to just 2% in 2003.

Unionist Candidates
Ian Paisley is perhaps the most recognised politician in Ulster, and most either love him or hate him. As well as founding his own political party in the DUP, he also founded his own church, the Free Presbyterian Church, both of which he leads to this day. Despite denouncing the Catholic Church, and writing a book 'proving' that the Pope is the Antichrist, there is still evidence that he attracts votes from Catholics, presumably down to his reputation for constituency work (source Wikipedia)

This year the Ulster Unionists have introduced Rodney McCune into the election. He is the youngest candidate standing for the party. Despite founding the first Unionist Association outside Northern Ireland (the Westminster Unionist Association), the fact that McCune is, by his own parties statement, a 'London-based barrister' may, I suspect, not endear him to the electorate in North Antrim (let's face it it's quite removed from London). That said, he is one UU candidate who seems to have been 'endorsed' by outgoing South Belfast MP, Martin Smyth.

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP have traditionally polled better in North Antrim than Sinn Fein but in the Sinners have been catching them lately and in 2003's Assembly elections, Sinn Fein's Philip McGuigan outpolled the combined total of the SDLP candidates, Sean Farren and Declan O'Loan. In the last Westminster election though, 2 years previous, Farren outpolled Sinn Fein's John Kelly by nearly double.

Farren and McGuigan will go head to head again for the nationalist vote in North Antrim this year when the SDLP will be trying to claw back their position as the largest nationalist party in the constituency, while Sinn Fein try to translate their victory in the Assembly elections 2 years ago into a tangible lead in the Westminster poll.

Other Candidates
Neutral or other candidates in North Antrim haven't polled well in recent years. The Alliance's vote has shrunk considerably and their candidate this time round, Jayne Dunlop, polled only 2% in 2003. She could well poll even less in the Westminster first-past-the-post election – although in 2001 in the same election she polled 2.6%. My own prediction is she'll be doing well to hold that vote. No other candidates have declared as far as I'm aware.

Prediction
Paisley: 52%

Statistics

Westminster
2001: DUP 50% - UUP 21% - SDLP 17% - SF 10%
1997: DUP 47% - UUP 24% - SDLP 16% - SF 6%

Assembly:
2003: DUP 46% - UUP 22% - SDLP 14% - SF 14%
1998: DUP 38% - UUP 22% - SDLP 17% - SF 8%
The relatively low DUP vote in 1998 may be attributed to the standing of 3 other Unionist candidates in the UKUP, PUP and UDP