Everything Ulster - Election 2005

EAST Antrim is the 2nd smallest constituency by population ( ~15% Catholic) with a 2001 census total of 84,062 people (of which I was one!). It also had one of the lowest turnouts in 2003 with only 56% of the 60,897-strong electorate. Here we see Ulster Unionist incumbent, and MP for 22 years, Roy Beggs attempting to see of a fierce challenge from one of the DUP's big names, Sammy Wilson, who was a hair's breadth away from taking the seat in the 2001 General Election.

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History
The seat of East Antrim was created in 1983 from the eastern fringes of South Antrim and North Antrim, incorporating the council boroughs of Larne, Carrickfergus and parts of Newtownabbey. In 1995 a small part of Newtownabbey (Rathcoole) was moved into the North Belfast constituency instead. From day one, the MP has been the Ulster Unionist, Roy Beggs. The SDLP gave up on the contituency after a poor showing in 1983, returning to it again in the 1996 Forum elections, when both they and Sinn Fein contested the election. With no nationalist challenge (save the Worker's party in 1987), smaller unionist and middle-of-the-road parties did quite well in the past and the Alliance have polled upwards of 20% in some years (in fact beating the DUP into 3rd place in 1997's Westminster election). The Conservatives even polled 7% in 1997, although their vote has fallen away since then and they're not standing this year.

Unionist Candidates
East Antrim will certainly be top of the DUP's list of target UUP seats this year and the battle will be to see if Roy Beggs, recently appointed deputy leader of the UUP, can retain his seat against the challenge of "blow-in" Sammy Wilson of the DUP, whose party topped the poll by 1,700 votes in 2003's Assembly election.
Begg's held off the challenge of Wilson, a fellow former school teacher, in 2001, clinging on to his Westminster seat by just 128 votes. The Alliance have claimed that many of their voters supported Beggs in 2001, and certainly there was an 8% drop in their vote from 1997. However, their suggestion that Alliance voters will 'swing back' this year seems dubious given that they didn't "swing back" in the 2003 Assembly elections, in fact their vote actually dropped another 1% to 11% (still their best result that year).
Beggs has a history of defeating big names in the DUP, including Wilson (2001), Nigel Dodds (1992) and Jim Allistair (1983). Wilson has now moved to East Antrim (after the 2001 election), but intends to fight to retain his seat on Belfast City Council in the local government elections, also taking place on 5th May, as well as holding on to his current Assembly seat in East Antrim which he won in 2003.
To me, it looks like being a close fight. I wouldn't be overly confident, if I were Beggs, about holding the seat, but I'm sure at the same time the DUP don't need reminded that they haven't won it yet. To be honest I'm not sure I have a preference either way. Beggs doesn't stick out as a remarkable MP and after 22 years it's maybe time for a change to get some new ideas and fresh thinking. At the same time, I hardly think Sammy Wilson will provide these. All I can say is 'may the best man win'.

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP and Sinn Fein do not poll well in East Antrim, especially with a split nationalist vote. Since 1996 the Sinn Fein vote has remained fairly constantly between 2-3%, while the SDLP vote, though shaky, is in not much different now than it was in '96 (possibly very slightly stronger as of 2003). If either party can build anything substantial on their results it'll be a moral victory. The SDLP's candidate is Larne councillor Daniel O'Connor who launched, yesterday, the SDLP "Ban All Sectarian Flags" campaign - for some reason he is pictured on the SDLP home page standing in front of a Union Flag and what looks like an Orange Order flag amongst others.
Sinn Fein's candidate will be James McKeown, information on whom seems to be thin on the ground at Sinn Fein HQ if his webpage is anything to go by. Luckily I'm here to enlighten and can tell you all he is also a Larne councillor representing candidate for Larne council running in the same ward as O'Connor, ie Coast Road DEA.

Other Candidates
Both the Alliance and Vote For Yourself Party are standing in East Antrim this year. The Alliance are fielding Sean Neeson who has traditionally done well in the constituency. If the Alliance do win some votes back from the UUP, I would imagine it would largely be down to Neeson's profile, as former party leader, being bigger than that of the 2001 challenger, John Mathews. Neeson has a long way to go to recover the 8% that was lost though, and since he stood in the Assembly election in 2003 which saw his party's share of the first preference vote fall rather than rise, I would not foresee too much of an increase in the Alliance party vote this year. They could, however, surprise me and capitalise on the general level of apathy particularly among Unionists towards their candidates.
David Kerr is standing for the Vote For Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket. Still not much information on either the candidate or the party, except for a brief BBC report on their manifesto.

Prediction
DUP Sammy Wilson gain (majority ~ 1,000)

Statistics

General Elections
2001: DUP 36% - UUP 36% - Alliance 12% - SDLP 7%
1997: DUP 19% - UUP 39% - Alliance 20% - SDLP 5%
Terence Dick, a Conservative, took 7% in 1997

Assembly Elections
2003: DUP 34% - UUP 29% - Alliance 11% - SDLP 8%
1998: DUP 22% - UUP 20% - Alliance 20% - SDLP 6%
5 smaller Unionist candidates took 19% between them in 1998