Everything Ulster - Election 2005

THERE are 18 days left to polling day on 5th May and between now and then Everything Ulster will bring you daily coverage of one of the 18 Westminster constituencies in Northern Ireland. These should serve as beginners' guides for people unfamiliar with the candidates and are unlikely to cover any particular topic in fine toothed comb type detail.

We begin today with Fermanagh & South Tyrone, currently held by Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew.

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History
Created in 1948, covering an area one-eighth the size of Northern Ireland, with a 2001 electorate of 67,174, Fermanagh & South Tyrone was traditionally a safe unionist seat won by Unionists in 5 consecutive elections after 1981 (when Bobby Sands was elected in a by-election, then a fellow-hunger striker was elected on his death). Although the majority of the population were Catholic, divisions in nationalism meant the seat usually went to the Ulster Unionists who, with the DUP not standing, stood on a largely united unionist vote.

At the last Westminster election in 2001 though, all this changed as an independent Unionist by the name of Jim Dixon, backed by the DUP, entered the fray. The result was that the Unionist vote was split and Jim Cooper's (Ulster Unionist) vote was reduced from 51% in 1997 to 34%, with 13% going to Dixon. At the same time, Sinn Fein candidate Michelle Gildernew also polled 34%, but won the seat by just 53 votes. The Ulster Unionists brought a High Court challenge over allegations that one polling station had been forced to remain open after polling should have closed, but the case was unsuccessful.

All the major parties increased their Assembly vote between 1998 and 2003, with the exception of the SDLP. However, the Unionist increase can be nearly entirely attributed to the fact that there were no non-affiliated unionist candidates in 2003, whereas Sinn Fein's increase of 7% can't be similarly explained, instead the SDLP vote declined by 6%.

Unionist Candidates
This year the DUP have decided to run their own candidate for the first time (possibly ever - definitely there have been none in the last 18 years). What makes this even harder to stomach for the Ulster Unionists is that the DUP candidate, one Arlene Foster, is a former UUP representative who defected to the DUP shortly after the last assembly elections. Both parties hope that they will receive the votes that were cast for her as a UUP candidate in those elections in 2003.

The Ulster Unionist candidate, Tom Elliott, is hoping that there will be significant numbers of voters seeking to punish Foster for being elected to the Assembly on a UUP ticket, and 'jumping ship' only wekks later. She claims that those who voted for her knew her position and will remain loyal to her.

Nationalist Candidates
Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew will be hoping to build on her victory of 2001 and increase her share of the vote. Standing in her way is the SDLP candidate, Tommy Gallagher, but his vote dropped between the general elections of 1997 (23%) and 2001 (18.7%). Hopefully with Sinn Fein's recent PR issues, particularly the McCartney killing and the Northern Bank heist, Gallagher will be able to increase his share again for 2005. However, we won't know until election day how many voters will actually take into account IRA criminality when they're casting their vote.

Prediction
Michelle Gildernew (SF) ~ 37%

Statistics

General Elections
2001: UUP 34% - SF 34% (SF take the seat by 53 votes)
1997: UUP 51% - SF 23% (UUP fielded the only unionist candidate)
Independent Unionist, Jim Dixon also stood in 2001
Between 1997 and 2001 the total Unionist vote shrank from 51% to 47%.
In the same time, the total Nationalist vote rose from 46% to 53%.
The Alliance stood in 1997 (not in 2001) which is why the figures don't add up to 100%.

Assembly Elections
2003: DUP 19% - UUP 29% - SDLP 16% - SF 34%
1998: DUP 14% - UUP 25% - SDLP 22% - SF 27%
It looks like Sinn Fein ate into the SDLP vote in 2003, while both Unionist parties increased their vote as no non-affiliated unionists stood in 2003.