Everything Ulster - Election 2005

Lagan Valley, constituency of former Ulster Unionist leader Lord Molyneaux, with a population of just a touch over 100,000, is, I predict (and it doesn't take Mystic Meg), a safe unionist seat. With a 2001 electorate of 72,671, it has provided the best result for the Ulster Unionists out of all constituencies in Northern Ireland in recent years, but it's not unlikely that this will change in the 2005 election.

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History
In 2001, Jeffrey Donaldson (Ulster Unionist) was the clear winner in Lagan Valley, and repeated his success in the 2003 Assembly elections with the largest number of first preference votes. However, shortly after the 2003 election Donaldson controversially switched his allegiance to the DUP. In the last 2 Westminster elections the UUP have polled 55% (1997) and 57% (2001) compared to the DUP's 14% and 13% in the same years. The Alliance polled 17% in both, beating the combined nationalist vote in the constituency, with the SDLP twice attracting 8% of the vote, and Sinn Fein receiving 3% in 1997 (equal to the Conservative candidate) and 6% in 2001.

Unionist Candidates
Jeffrey Donaldson, who won the seat last time around for the UUP, is standing again, this time under the DUP banner. Challenging him is the Ulster Unionists' Basil McCrea. The DUP regard this as a safe seat claiming Donaldson has a large personal vote, but the Ulster Unionists appear confident that they can win it back, pointing out that many constituents are outraged over Donaldson's 'jumping ship' so soon after being elected on a UUP ticket in 2003. In Basil McCrea's interview today on A Tangled Web, he points out that Donaldson won 26,00 votes last time with the DUP candidate winning only 6,000. This would mean Donaldson would need to carry 10,000 of his votes (~ 40%) with him to the DUP as personal votes, and you have to wonder whether many of those who voted UUP in 2001 will be able to bring themselves to vote DUP this time around.

McCrea says he got involved in politics out of a desire to promote the economy of Northern Ireland and says he will 'concentrate on bread and butter issues including health, pensions and law and order.' He also says he wants to reduce the burden of bureaucracy on local businesses, which he says is 'stifling innovation and progress in our community'. At the same time, Donaldson says he is working to create lots of new jobs for Lagan Valley at the new Maze Stadium project (I'm sure you all know my feelings on the Maze Stadium).

Nationalist Candidates
Paul Butler, a Lisburn councillor, is standing for Sinn Fein in Lagan Valley. He will be competing for nationalist votes with Belfast councillor for the Upper Falls DEA, Patricia Lewsley of the SDLP, who is the only nationalist currently elected to the Assembly for Lagan Valley. Lewsley will be seeking to increase her slender majority from the 258 votes it comprised in the 2003 Assembly elections, while Sinn Fein will be looking to overcome their defecit to the SDLP, which in the 2003 Assembly elections was only 258 votes.

It would take no small miracle for either nationalist to win in this seat, based on past polling results, even if one was to receive the entire nationalist vote.

Other Candidates
The Alliance will be fielding party leader Seamus Close in Lagan Valley. In 2001, he polled 16.6% of the vote, the best result for the Alliance pary across Northern Ireland. He outpolled the DUP and also has a higher share of the vote than the SDLP/Sinn Fein candidates combined. With the unionist vote more evenly divided, it seems he is unlikely to retain his 2nd place in the poll come 5th May and the Alliance should be aiming simply for any increase in their vote. However, with the collapse of the centre ground, I wonder if they can even maintain their 16.6% share from 2001.

Prediction
Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 39%
(with Basil McCrea coming a close second on 32%)

Statistics

Westminster
2001: DUP 13% - UUP 57% - APNI 17% - SDLP 8% - SF 6%
1997: DUP 14% - UUP 55% - APNI 17% - SDLP 8% - SF 3%

Assembly:
2003: DUP 21% - UUP 46% - APNI 11% - SDLP 8% - SF 8%
1998: DUP 14% - UUP 41% - APNI 15% - SDLP 9% - SF 4%
Both the UDP and the UKUP stood in 1998 and not in 2003.