Everything Ulster - Election 2005

WEST Tyrone, population: 86,200 (2001 electorate: 60,739), was one of the first seats to spark interest in this election campaign, long before the election was confirmed. Here, independent MLA Dr Kieran Deeney topped the poll in the 2003 Assembly election fighting on the single issue of retaining the hospital in Omagh. Dr Deeney is running again this time round, but his chances of topping the poll are slim.

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History
This is only the third Westminster election in which West Tyrone will feature, as the seat was only introduced following the boundary changes of 1995, when it took the western part of the old Mid Ulster constituency. The Ulster Unionists (UUP) won this seat in 1997, as the William Thompson was the only Unionist standing, with 35% of the vote, but the nationalist vote was split between the SDLP (32%) and Sinn Fein (31%). In 2001 the UUP vote dropped to 30% while Sinn Fein’s Pat Doherty took the seat with 41%. In the assembly election in 1997, the UUP took 16% and the DUP 17%, while in 2003 the UUP vote dropped to 14% while the DUP held their 17%. At the same time, the Sinn Fein vote has grown steadily from about 30% in the first elections in the constituency to 40% in 2001.

One thing to note is that it seems to have been largely the SDLP vote that got sitting MLA Kieran Deeney elected in 2003’s assembly election, certainly judging by the 2001 Westminster result.

Unionist Candidates
Both Unionist parties are fielding sitting MLAs in West Tyrone. The Ulster Unionists are fielding Derek Hussey, who claims Ulster-Scots and ‘Orange culture’ among his interests. At the same time Thomas Buchanan, also with an interest in Ulster Scots, fights the first DUP contest for the Westminster seat of West Tyrone. In the assembly elections in 2003, Buchanan outpolled Hussey 11.4% to 8.9%, while the DUP outpolled the UUP in total by 17.5% to 13.5%.

Nationalist Candidates
Topping the poll with 41% in 2001, Sinn Fein’s Vice President Pat Doherty is the sitting MP - although being a Sinn Fein representative, the green benches at Westminster are not one of the places he sits. Doherty was born in Glasgow and moved to Donegal, where his parents were from, in 1968. He contested seats in the Republic in 1989 and 1995 before contesting West Tyrone in 1997, where he finished third behind William Thompson (UUP) and Joe Byrne (SDLP).
Challenging him will be the SDLP’s Eugene McMenamin, although the understanding is that the local SDLP association didn’t want to stand in this election, to help Kieran Deeney’s prospects. It seems this would have been wise, as while Deeney’s position has weakened, he pretty much took half of the SDLP vote in the 2003 assembly elections. The SDLP will be hoping that with the first past the post contest being fought for Westminster, many of those voters return to the fold. Both McMenamin and Doherty, like the other 3 candidates, are MLAs for the constituency

Other Candidates
Kieran Deeney, GP and independent MLA, is standing once again on the issue of Omagh’s hospital and its loss of acute services. He topped the poll in 2003 with only 14.8% of the vote, most of which seems to have come from the SDLP’s 2001 vote. He had hoped all the other parties to stand aside in this election, and the Ulster Unionists were prepared to agree if the DUP did the same, however in the end both are standing, as are both nationalists – although some in the SDLP are unhappy they are fielding a candidate. Deeney seems to have a nationalist outlook, which would explain the large SDLP vote he received. Despite topping the 2003 poll, I don’t think he’ll come anywhere close this time – not least because both the DUP and Sinn Fein totals were larger than his vote anyway. The Alliance aren’t putting up a candidate after polling a spectacular 0.4% in 2003 (164 votes).

Prediction
Pat Doherty SF hold – 42%

Statistics

Westminster
2001: UUP 30% - SDLP 29% - SF 39%
1997: UUP 35% - SDLP 26% - SF 34%

Assembly
2003: DUP 17% - UUP 14% - SDLP 15% - SF 39% - Deeney 15%
1998: DUP 17% - UUP 16% - SDLP 26% - SF 34%