Everything Ulster - Election 2005

SOUTH Down is the 2nd biggest constituency, in Northern Ireland, by population with a total of 104,658 (62% of whom are Catholic) in 2001's census. It's unique this year in being home to an outgoing SDLP MP, Eddie McGrady, who is seeking re-election, and it's probably the least likely SDLP seat to fall to Sinn Fein..

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History
Eddie McGrady has been the MP for South Down since he won the seat from Enoch Powell (UUP) in 1987, however there was a swing in the nationalist vote from the SDLP to Sinn Fein between the General Elections in 1997 and 2001 (SDLP -7%; SF +10%).The DUP didn't stand in 1997 but when they did stand in 2001 the Unionist vote remained constant at 33%, with the DUP taking 15% to the UUP's 18%

Unionist Candidates
Both Unionist candidates were elected MLAs in 2003. The UUP are running with Dermot Nesbitt, a man with a long history in politics dating back nearly 25 years to his election to Down Council in 1981. The man diserves applause just for pointing out that Sinn Fein's 'equality' agenda in employment has more to do with scoring points than overcoming what is now a tiny problem, if it even exists.
The DUP are standing Jim Wells, a member of Down District Council as well as an MLA, who boasts that he has "the most extensive network of advice centres of any MLA in the constituency." Wells lists his interests as hill walking and wildlife conservation and claims credit for campaigning on many issues affecting the constituency since 1998.

Nationalist Candidates
Sinn Fein's Caitriona Ruane is attempting to win South Down this year in an attempt to build on Mick Murphy's success in 2001 when he almost doubled Sinn Fein's vote from 1997. Ruane has been the leader of the "Bring Them Home" campaign to free 3 IRA members charged with training FARC rebels in Columbia, but later convicted only of travelling on false passports . She likes her Irish medium schools and her children have attended Irish language schools since they were 3. Caitriona Ruane has a high profile within Sinn Fein and could well increase their vote well beyond the levels of 2001.
Sitting MP Eddie McGrady will be contesting the seat for the SDLP and some have said he is a dead cert to retain it. That said, the McGrady won't want to be overconfident and will doubtless be canvassing hard to make sure he maximises his vote. If he can retain his 46% from 2001 he should be very happy. On his website he sums up his ambition as "an Ireland United, Prosperous, Fair to All and Free from Paramilitary Threat". You can judge more about his campaign platform from the speech made after handing in his nomination. McGrady is in a strong position to hold his seat, despite the downturn in SDLP fortunes lately, and it has been said he has a record of attracting votes from demographics the SDLP traditionally can't reach and has recently had support from Irish Foreign Minister, Dermot Ahern.

Other Candidates

Julian Crozier is running in South Down for the Alliance, whose vote has declined from 4% in the 1996 forum elections to 1% in 2001 (Betty Campbell for Westminster) and 2003 (Neil Powell for the Assembly).

Prediction
Eddie McGrady SDLP hold with ~ 40%

Statistics

Westminster
2001: DUP 15% - UUP 18% - SDLP 46% - SF 20%
1997: UUP - 33% - SDLP 53% - SF 10%

Assembly
2003: DUP 15% - UUP 18% - SDLP 35% - SF 26%
1998: DUP 9% - UUP 14% - SDLP 45% - SF 15%