Everything Ulster - Election 2005

WEST Belfast is another seat that has a fairly predictable outcome. Sinn Fein's president, Gerry Adams, won the seat in 2001 with a massive 66% of the vote. In 2001, West Belfast had the 2nd youngest population out of all the constituencies, with an average age of 33 and a population of 87,610 (electorate: 59,617), and is also the most Catholic (76% - or 83% by 'community background').

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History
West Belfast, a republican heartland and Sinn Fein's only seat east of the Bann, has seen Gerry Adams elected every year since 1983, with the exception of the 1992 election, in which he was defeated by the SDLP's Joe Hendron. The Sinn Fein vote has grown steadily since the forum elections in 1996, but (53%) to the Westminster 2001 level of 66%. In the same time the Alliance have been all but annihilated from the constituency and aren't standing this year.

Unionist Candidates (why bother?)
Diane Dodds, Nigel's wife, QUB graduate and now a teacher, is standing in West Belfast for the DUP. Apparently she's determined to send a message that "that the unionist community is strong, united and here to stay." She wants to see government help for the regeneration of the Shankill to provide new family housing.
The Ulster Unionists are fielding Councillor Chris McGimpsey, a member of the Orange Order, Royal Black Preceptory and Apprentice Boys. McGimpsey's also interested in the Shankill and is a member of the Greater Shankill Partnership.

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP are challenging the incumbent MP this year with their policing spokesman, Alex Attwood; another Queen's University graduate and a member of Belfast City Council for Upper Falls since 1985. Alex was elected to the Assembly in 2003, polling 11% of the first preference vote (with SDLP running mate Joe Hendron picking up 9%).
Gerry Adams is widely expected to be re-elected in West Belfast. He's starting at 66% but I expect (and hope for the love of God) that this year's result will see a downturn as backlash against recent IRA activity, though no doubt there'll be more attempts to brush this off between now and election time. I'm issuing a personal plea to all voters in West Belfast to send a message to Adams that it's time the IRA went away, by voting for someone else on May 5th.
The Workers Party (formerly official Sinn Fein) are running with John Lowry who polled 1.8% (their best result in NI) in 2001 with 736 votes. The Workers' Party aim for a 32 county socialist republic on this island.

Other Candidates
Lynda Gilby, a journalist with the Belfast Telegraph group is standing as the Vote For Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket in all 4 Belfast constituencies, including West Belfast.
Professor Liam Kennedy of Queen's University is standing in West Belfast "on the need for all paramilitaries to go away". Perhaps he'd be a good protest vote to show Gerry Adams we're all sick of his stunts and stories over the IRA and want action. I sincerely hope he polls better than the 102 votes he got in 1997.

Prediction
As close as this seat is: Adams to hold with about 55%

Statistics

General Elections
2001: DUP 6% - UUP 6% - SDLP 19% - SF 66%
1997: UUP 3% - SDLP 39% - SDLP 56%
In 1997 the DUP and PUP both didn't stand. From the figures, it seems most Unionists voted SDLP to try and keep Adams out, as had worked in 1992. Unfortunately this time they were less successful.

Assembly Elections
2003: DUP 8% - UUP 4% - SDLP 19% - SF 65%
1998: DUP 3% - UUP 4% - PUP 5% - SDLP 25% - SF 59%