Everything Ulster - Election 2005

EAST Londonderry has a (largely rural) population of 88,737 with the electorate this year numbering some 58,861. It should be an interesting seat this year, not least due to Sinn Fein, who's friends in the IRA spent 30 years killing protestants and police officers, who are standing a Protestant former RUC reservist, Billy Leonard.

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History
Between 1983, when the seat was formed, and 2001, the seat was held by William Ross of the Ulster Unionists. However, in 2001 the DUP's Gregory Campbell outpolled him by nearly 2,000 votes with 12,813. Like most other constituencies, the UUP and SDLP vote has declined since 1997, along with the Alliance vote (6% to 2%). At the same time, the vote of Sinn Fein and the DUP has risen. In terms of actual numbers of votes, the overall Unionist vote and the SDLP vote both stayed fairly constant between the 1997 and 2001 elections (although the DUP took about 2,500 of the UUP votes). In this period though, Sinn Fein polled an extra 3,000 odd votes.

Unionist Candidates
Gregory Campbell is defending the East Londonderry seat for the DUP. As well as winning the 2001 General Election, he topped the poll in the 2003 elections to Stormont. He seems to be campaigning largely on local issues, claiming that he balances spending time in Westminster with spending time listening to constituents.
The Ulster Unionists are fielding David McClarty, a councillor on Coleraine Borough Council, who, apparently, regularly appears in amateur theatrical productions (like the UUP election broadcast - bom bom!). Like Campbell, he is currently an MLA for East Londonderry, but (so far as I know), unlike Campbell, McClarty has pledged to resign his seat at Stormont if elected to Westminster to ensure he represents his constituents there fully.

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP's chief whip, John Dallat, will be standing for his party in East Londonderry. Originally from Donegal, GAA member Dallat has been an SDLP councillor on Coleraine Borough Council for 26 years and was elected an MLA in 1998 and 2003.
Sinn Fein's Billy Leonard, as mentioned above, is a former RUC reservist. He was a member of the SDLP up until last year when he defected to Sinn Fein. Having already taken an oath of allegiance, perhaps he could end Sinn Fein's abstentionism from Westminster? Leonard is also standing for election to Coleraine Borough Council in the Skerries ward, where he faces a contest with another ex-cop, Barney Fitzpatrick of the Alliance, who has expressed his disgust at Leonard's membership of Sinn Fein and asked him to clarify if he believes the murder of his former colleagues was murder.

Other Candidates
The Alliance are running with their Culture & Arts spokesman, Yvonne Boyle, who polled the party's 2.2% in 2003. Martin Samuel is also standing as an indpendent. I can't find out much about him other than the fact that he stood in 1987 as a member of the "Ecology Party," - presumably a greenie then.

Prediction
DUP Campbell hold (~ 38%)

Statistics

General Elections
2001: DUP 32% - UUP 27% - SDLP 21% - SF 16%
1997: DUP 26% - UUP 36% - SDLP 22% - SF 9%

Assembly Elections
2003: DUP 32% - UUP 23% - SDLP 16% - SF 18%
1998: DUP 24% - UUP 25% - SDLP 24% - SF 10%
Boyd Douglas (Independent Unionist) took 12% of the vote in 1998 and 8% in 2003