Everything Ulster - Election 2005

FOYLE is the most populous (105,066 people in 2001) of the 18 constituencies and covers the same area as the district council of Londonderry (which contains the city and a rural area to the south east). It will definitely be one of the more interesting constituencies to watch in this election as, SDLP leader Mark Durkan defends the seat for his party (won convincingly by John Hume in 2001) from Sinn Fein's Mitchel McLaughlin in what is bound to be a tight race.

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History
Foyle was created as a contituency in 1983, made up of parts of the old constituencies of Mid-Ulster and Londonderry. After the boundary shakeup of 1995, some territory was lost to the new constituency of West Tyrone. Since the seat was created in 1983, John Hume has been returned as MP in every General Election with a vote of 46% in 1983 increasing to 53% in 1997, dropping slightly to 50% in 2001. The 2001 election was the first where the Ulster Unionists stood, previously having allowed the DUP a free run for the Unionist vote, and they took 7% of the total vote while the DUP dropped from their 1997 result of 22% to 15%.

Prior to Mitchel McLaughlin standing in 1997, Martin McGuinness had contested the seat for Sinn Fein, though in three elections his vote dropped from an initial 20.3% (1983) to 17.6% (1992). In 1997 and 2001, McLaughlin increased Sinn Fein's vote to 22% and 27% respectively.

Unionist Candidates
This year the Unionist vote will be split in Foyle for only the second time as Earl Storey of the Ulster Unionists takes on the DUP's William Hay (MLA since 1998 and Westminster candidate in the last 2 elections). Storey, a rector, claims that his "fundamental commitment is to building a peaceful society – one that all people in Northern Ireland can be part of" but doesn't have an awful lot on his website compared to other UUP candidates. That said, Hay, a DPP member as well as MLA, has no information on his website at all at the present moment! Oops.

Nationalist Candidates
Mitchel McLaughlin, Sinn Fein's Chairman, is hoping to finally wrestle the seat from the SDLP now that the apparently untouchable John Hume is stepping down. He has indeed been polling quite well in the opinion polls - which disturbs me considering this is a man who insisted that the IRA's controversial killing of a mother of 10 young children (Jean McConville) in the early 1970s though "wrong", was not a "crime".

Defending the seat for the SDLP is party leader Mark Durkan, a former QUB deputy president. Durkan has been trying hard to fill a vacuum in the SDLP left by the stepping down of John Hume and Seamus Mallon, both men who commanded great respect, both in their own community and even from some unionists. His challenge this time round will be transforming Hume's huge personal vote into an SDLP party vote.

In essence, Durkan needs to win this seat if he is to retain the leadership of the party. A first victory should be a tremendous boost to Durkan's profile which would help in future elections. That may be both optimistic and simplistic though, as he was apparently "one of the party's cheif negotiators" in the talks that led to the Good Friday Agreement major negotiator and later Minister for Finance and Personnel at Stormont. This was all prior to being elected SDLP leader and becoming Deputy First Minister at the end of 2001, before which I'd never heard of him. I'd like to see Durkan poll well but despite John Hume polling nearly double his closest rival in 2001, the SDLP majority over Sinn Fein in the 2003 Assembly elections was only 1,532 (<4%), although Durkan did outpoll McLaughlin despite the SDLP fielding an extra candidate.

Other Candidates
Eamonn McCann is standing in Foyle for the Socialist Environmental Alliance, citing a lack of real choice between the main parties. McCann has recorded his own election single "McCann's the Man," which, to me, illustrates the cheap trendiness prominent in socialism in western countries (not to mention the apparent egocentric motives behind his participation in the SEA).
Ben Reel is standing on the Vote For Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket. I did some quick searching for information about Ben Reel and Vote For Yourself on google and a few other resources and can't find any history on Mr Reel, or a website for the party, so please feel free to leave a comment here if you find anything. Safe to say they're not likely to win the seat but EU is all about education (including my own)!
The Alliance aren't standing here, after polling poorly in 1997 and 2001 (2% and 1% respectively).

Prediction
SDLP Mark Durkan to hold (slim majority, < 1,000 votes)

Statistics

General Elections
2001: DUP 15% - UUP 7% - SDLP 50% - SF 27%
1997: DUP 22% - SDLP 53% - SF 22%

Stormont Elections
2003: DUP 15% - UUP 8% - SDLP 36% - SF 32%
1998: DUP 13% - UUP 10% - SDLP 48% - SF 26%