Everything Ulster - Election 2005

THE constituency of Strangford is a safe Unionist seat, with a Catholic population of only 15% (the total population being 98,158 in 2001). Iris Robinson of the DUP will be defending the seat she won here with 42.8% of the vote in 2001 (although David McNarry of the UUP was only 2.5% behind on 10.3%). The consituency includes the Ards peninsula as well as Saintfield (part of Down District Council) and parts of Castlereagh District Council.

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History
The constituency was held from 1983 to 2001 by John Taylor (UUP) and has only ever returned a small nationalist vote. In 2001 Taylor stepped down and Iris Robinson took the seat from the new UUP challenger, David McNarry while the SDLP polled 6% and Sinn Fein 2%. Small parties have a good record here with the UK Unionists getting a seat in the 1998 Assembly elections and the Conservateves even managed 15% in 1992. The Alliance traditionally polled well here (although in recent years, like with most constituencies, their vote here has dropped off slightly).

Unionist Candidates
Iris Robinson stood in the constituency for the first time in 1997, after Sammy Wilson's unsuccessful attempt in 1992, before she went on to win it at the second try in 2001. Her fight for this seat is based largely on her party's claim that she is a more dedicated constituency politican than her UUP predecessor who, the DUP say, neglected the constituency.
Her challenger, Ulster Unionist Gareth McGimpsey (son of South Belfast candidate Michael McGimpsey), was born in Newtownards. He's one of the younger candidates at 34 years old, having graduated Queen's University with a Masters and Phd in Politics. In response to the DUP claims of Iris Robinson's constituency work, McGimpsey and the Ulster Unionists complain that she has been something of a regular absentee from Westminster, dubbing her 'part-time Iris.' On top of this, they can also point to her position as a Castlereagh councillor, MLA and MP all at the same time with McGimpsey's website announcing "In truth everyone now knows that her political greed in attempting to hold down three jobs hasn’t worked and that she has categorically failed in providing adequate representation at Westminster for her constituents." Despite this, Iris is running for council as well as Westminster again this year.
The Ulster Unionists only lost this seat by a narrow margin in 2001, but this was still a large swing to the DUP from 1992 and they will be disappointed if they lose this to the newcomer McGimpsey, who's inexperience might be held against him.

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP are fielding Joe Boyle in Strangford while Sinn Fein are running with Dermot Kennedy. Kennedy, a Sinn Fein member for 25 years, is a former teacher. Resigned to defeat in the General Election, his webpage seems to concentrate more on the assembly stating "Dermot is eager to provide local nationalists with a credible voice to speak on their behalf in the Assembly." However, this is more than Joe Boyle who doesn't seem to have a web page on the SDLP site.

Oher Candidates
The Alliance are standing Kieran McCarthy in Strangford and he will be hoping to turn around his party's fortunes in the constituency, as their share of the vote fell to it's lowest ever in Strangford (which from what I can tell was created in 1983) in 2001, when McCarthy polled only 6.7%.
The Conservatives are fielding Terry Dick, the candidate who polled 7% for the Tories in East Antrim in 1997, however Alan Greer (now standing in East Belfast) only polled 0.6% in the constituency's Assembly election in 2003, down from 2.2% in 2001's General Election. Based on those tallies, I think if the Tories can break 5% they'd be very happy with their performance.

Prediction
DUP Iris Robinson hold ( ~ 50%)

Statistics
General Elections
2001: DUP 43% - UUP 40% - APNI 7% - SDLP 6% - SF 2%
1997: DUP 30% - UUP 44% - APNI 13% - SDLP 7% - SF 1%

Stormont Elections
2003: DUP 48% - UUP 29% - APNI 7% - SDLP 8% - SF 3%
1998: DUP 28% - UUP 29% - APNI 12% - SDLP 6% - SF 2%