Everything Ulster - Election 2005

NEWRY & Armagh constituency is made up of the Armagh District Council area and the west part of Newry & Mourne. Seamus Mallon has been MP for the area since he defeated Ulster Unionist Jim Nicholson (now MEP for NI) in 1986, but is stepping down after 19 years of service. The population of Newry & Armagh is 100,950 as of 2001 and is two-thirds Catholic.

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History
The constituency was created in 1983, surviving largely unscathed in the bounday shakeup in 1995. Jim Nicholson won the seat in its first election in 1983 but lost it to Seamus Mallon after Nicholson and his colleagues forced a by-election by resigning in a protest over the Anglo-Irish Agreement. Mallon has retained the seat for the SDLP from that time onwards, seemingly benefitting from the threat of a single Unionist opponent which meant that he was seen as the only nationalist capable of winning the seat. This meant that he is likely to have benefitted from a number of votes from republicans in the constituency. This theory is backed up by the fact that Mallon's lead over Sinn Fein's Conor Murphy fell to just 6% in 2001, when the threat of a single candidate was removed as the DUP stood in the seat for the first time, indeed outpolling the Ulster Unionists 19% to 12%.

Unionist Candidates
Both the Ulster Unionists and Democratic Unionists are standing in this constituency again in 2005 with Danny Kennedy, a Newry and Armagh MLA, standing for the UUP and Paul Berry, also an MLA for Newry & Armagh, standing for the DUP. Neither man seems likely to win with a split unionist vote.
Berry, a councillor and another DUP gospel singer, claims to be a 'grassroots politician' who will "represent Newry & Armagh with enthusiasm and energy." He was the youngest MLA elected to Stormont in 1998.
Danny Kennedy is the UUP spokesman for education and a vocal opponent to the abolition of academic selection and destruction of Northern Ireland's grammar schools. He also sits on Newry & Mourne DPP and is highly involved with his church as a Clerk of Session and Sunday School Superintendent at Bessbrook Presbyterian.

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP will be hoping they can retain the seat through Dominic Bradley, elected MLA in 2003, however this is seeming unlikely at this stage. In 2003, the SDLP lost a lot of votes to Sinn Fein with a huge swing which was probably a lot to do with Seamus Mallon's not standing. Bradley, who has studied at both Northern Ireland's universities, is confident he will win the seat despite the fact the bookies aren't so confident. Seamus Mallon has also recently said that voters are returning to the SDLP
Sinn Fein's Conor Murphy will be confident of winning the seat as the top-polling nationalist in 2003 despite Sinn Fein's vote being split 3 ways. He stood in 2001 and saw the SDLP lead over Sinn Fein cut to just 6.5% from 22%, even with Seamus Mallon standing. He is the Sinn Fein spokesman on equality and collusion, often behind calls for the dismantling of army bases in the Newry & Armagh area.

This is one seat where a single Unionist candidate would have had an outside chance of winning. Although a Unionist hasn't won here since 1983, the nationalist vote looks like being very evenly split and I would have liked to have seen the UUP stand aside here as the DUP outpolled them in both 2001 and 2003. Then again the DUP weren't interested in a pact outside Fermanagh / South Tyrone and South Belfast.

Other Candidates
Gerry Markey, the former singer and guitarist for Newry group "The Spartans" is standing as an independent candidate. He's a former member of the merchant navy who went on to have his own engineering company and, now retired, has decided to enter politics.

Prediction
Sinn Fein Conor Murphy gain (~42%)

Statistics

Westminster Elections
2001: DUP 19% - UUP 12% - SDLP 37% - SF 31%
1997: UUP 34% - SDLP 43% - SF 21%

Stormont Elections
2003: DUP 18% - UUP 16% - SDLP 25% - SF 40%
1998: DUP 13% - UUP 18% - SDLP 43% - SF 21%