Everything Ulster - Election 2005

NORTH Belfast is the last constituency left to cover in the Westminster Focus series. Here, Nigel Dodds seems firm favourite, after a dramatic win from the Ulster Unionists in 2001. The population of North Belfast is one of the smallest in Northern Ireland with 86,066 and that includes some areas of the Newtownabbey Borough Council area (most of the Macedon ward which includes Rathcoole). Nearly 45% of the population are Catholic by background and Sinn Fein's vote has grown steadily since 1996 without the SDLP's changing much.

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History
North Belfast, along with the other Belfast constituencies, have existed as far back as the 19th century. It seems to be only in 1995 that it began eating into Newtownabbey. Between 1983 and 1997 the seat was held by the UUP's Cecil Walker, during which time he went largely unchallenged by the DUP. However, in 2001 the DUP's Nigel Dodds ran against Walker and more or less destroyed his electoral base, polling a massive 41% to Walker's 12%. Prior to Walker winning the seat he lost the 1979 election to the DUP's Johnny McQuade by a small margin. The Alliance vote in the constituency has been small, only 4% even in 1996, but in the 2003 Assembly elections it fell to 1%. The SDLP has hovered just under 20% for the past 9 years, while the Sinn Fein vote has grown from something similar up to 27% in 2003.

Unionist Candidates
Fred Cobain, a Belfast City Councillor, MLA and former Lord Mayor, is standing for the Ulster Unionists, hoping to wrangle the seat back from the DUP. Cobain is born and bred north Belfast and his web page reads like an impressive resumé, including work with the homeless, campaigning to save the Mater hospital and fighting for jobs at Glenbank and the Mackie's site. He's a Crusaders fan too, so that alone would probably win him my vote! (all the best for Friday night lads!)
Nigel Dodds, MP for the last 4 years, also an MLA for North Belfast and City Councillor, is defending a 2001 majority of 6,400 from Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly. Dodd's has also been Lord Mayor twice, in 1988 and 1991. He went to school in Enniskillen, attended Cambridge University as well as Queen's University and was awarded an OBE in 1997 for services to local government.

Nationalist Candidates
Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly is the party's spokesman for Policing and Criminal Justice (that's a laugh!) and was the closest candidate to Dodd's total in 2001 with 27% to Dodds's 34%. According to the Sinn Fein website, he served time in gaol in England after being convicted of causing explosions and consipracy to cause explosions in the 70s when he began a hunger strike to be transferred to Northern Ireland and was moved to the Maze outside Lisburn, where he escaped at the third attempt. In 1986 he was rearrested in Holland and extradited to the UK where he was sent back to the Maze until 1989. Kelly, who in a statement to the Dutch court claimed the British had attempted to link the IRA with international terrorism, later visited the three IRA men charged with training FARC terrorist rebels in Colombia (and this is ignoring the Palestinian flags flown in republican areas and long-held sympathies with Spanish terrorists ETA).
The SDLP candidate for North Belfast is barrister Alban Maginness, who was in third place in both the 2001 General Election and the 2003 Stormont Election. He was later elected Belfast's first nationalist Lord Mayor in 1997, 5 years before Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. He is still a Belfast City Councillor for the Castle DEA and takes a specific interest in regional development as well as being a director of the Ormeau Baths Gallery.

Other Candidates
The Alliance candidate who polled 1% in 2003, Marjorie Hawkins, is standing again in this election. She is the PA to party leader, David Ford, and spokesperson for children. With the highly polarised politics of North Belfast (even for Northern Ireland standards) I'm not holding out much hope for her here, but she could well poll more than the Workers' Party candidate, Marcella Delaney.
Lynda Gilby of Vote For Yourself fame is standing in North Belfast as well as the other 3 Belfast constituencies.

Prediction
DUP Nigel Dodds hold (~ 40%)

Statistics

General Elections
2001: DUP 41% - UUP 12% - SDLP 21% - SF 26%
1997: UUP 52% - SDLP 20% - SF 20%

Stormont Elections
2003: DUP 34% - UUP 9% - SDLP 17% - SF 27%
1998: DUP 21% - UUP 11% - SDLP 21% - SF 21%
Other Unionists polled 20% in 1998 and 8% in 2003