Everything Ulster - Election 2005

East Belfast has long been a safe seat for the DUP's Peter Robinson since he was elected in 1979. It's an overwhelmingly Unionist constituency, but includes the nationalist stronghold of the Short Strand. It's the smallest constituency in Northern Ireland, with a population of 79,621 in the 2001 census and a 2001 electorate of 58,455 and 63% turnout. It takes in the eastern quarter of Belfast city council and 9 of the 23 Castlereagh DEAs and is the home of the Alliance's former leader, Lord Alderdice. Issues affecting the local area include planning, in particular the evergrowing number of new apartments, and the expansion of Belfast City Airport.

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History
In 2001, Peter Robinson was elected with 42.5% of the vote ahead of the UUP, who fielded Tim Lemon instead of regular candidate Reg Empey, who said he wanted to concentrate on his ministerial role at Stormont. With no threat of a nationalist victory, smaller parties have always polled strongly here, most notably the Alliance and PUP, both of whom have had MLAs from this constituency in 1998 and 2003. In fact, in the 1997 General Election, the Alliance's Jim Hendron was only beaten into third place by 1% (600 votes) behind the UUP's Reg Empey. In 2003's assembly elections East Belfast also saw the highest poll in Northern Ireland for both the socialist party and the Vote For Yourself party.

Unionist Candidates
With Stormont suspended for the forseeable future, Sir Reg Empey returns this year to contest the seat for the Ulster Unionists. He has a lot of ground to make up even from the 2003 assembly elections though, which were a great result for the UUP with 33%. Recent revelations about Michael Copeland, while seemingly innocent, may hinder Sir Reg's chances as he tries to break through the 10,000 vote mark which he was just short of in 1997

While the Ulster Unionists have seemingly been catching the DUP in most polls since the 1996 forum elections, the DUP tend to poll extemely well in Westminster elections, with 42% in 19997 and 43% in 2001 compared to the Assembly elections in which they polled 31% (1998) and 39% (2003). Peter Robinson is probably quite comfortable he will still be sitting on the green benches after the election.

David Ervine (PUP) has not yet announced his candidacy for this election and it is not known at this stage if he will stand, despite polling 10% and 4th place in 2001. Nominations have closed and I haven't heard anything so I'm assuming he's not. This being true, the DUP predict that 60% of his supporters will vote DUP.

Nationalist Candidates
Sinn Fein's Joe O'Donnell, who contested the seat in 2001, had to step down from his position as Deputy Mayor after there were some allegations of misdeeds about a planning application and the Sinn Fein candidate this time round will be Deborah Devenny, the lady who thought it would be a laugh to attend a fancy dress party dressed as a Nazi SS trooper (sorry no picture). At the same time the SDLP will be standing Mary Muldoon, a West Belfast councillor in the 1980s, in the constituency.

Other Candidates
East Belfast has always been a good place to be for 'other' parties, particularly the Alliance and Conservatives. Naomi Long, Belfast councillor and MLA is standing for the Alliance and will be hoping to attract back Alliance voters she claims have supported the UUP recently in an attempt to oust hardline unionism but have been disappointed. Her profile has been rising steadily in the area since her election to the city council.

Alan Greer, former Ballyclare High School pupil, will be standing for the Conservatives in East Belfast, one of 3 constituencies where they have declared, the others being Strangford (Terry Dick) and North Down (Julian Robertson). In the 2001 election, the Conservatives' Terry Dick was only 88 votes behind Ciara Farren, the SDLP candidate who had 888. It would be a major coup for the Tories in Northern Ireland to poll better than one of the main 4 parties and it doesn't look entirely impossible here. Best of luck Alan.

Prediction
Peter Robinson to hold (48%)
Reg Empey 2nd (29%)

Statistics

Westminster
2001: DUP 43% - UUP 23% - Alliance 16% - PUP 10%
1997: DUP 42% - UUP 25% - Alliance 24%
The PUP didn't stand in 1997's General Election

Assembly
2003: DUP 39% - UUP 33% - Alliance 9% - PUP 10%
1998: DUP 31% - UUP 24% - Alliance 18% - PUP 14%