Everything Ulster - Election 2005

ONE of the smallest constituencies in Northern Ireland, Mid-Ulster had a 2001 population of 86,496, 63% of whom are Catholic. Martin McGuinness (SF) is the incumbent MP and his seat would seem reasonably safe after receving more than 50% of the vote in 2001. Mid-Ulster is situated along the east coast of Lough Neagh, including parts of Counties Tyrone and Londonderry.

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History
The constituency of Mid-Ulster in it's present form was created in 1995 after the old Mid-Ulster constituency was split. Only 30% of the new Mid-Ulster is the same as the old one, the rest being made up of bits of Fermangh & South Tyrone and East Londonderry. After the changes the previous MP, Rev William McCrea (DUP - standing this election in South Antrim), was ousted by Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness in 1997 and McGuinness has remained the MP since. Since the changes, the Ulster Unionists have stood aside in the Westminster elections to give the DUP's William McCrea a free run, but Sinn Fein have topped the poll on 40% in 1997 and 51% in 2001, with the SDLP vote at 22% and 17% respectively. Others haven't fared will with the Alliance vote only 1% in 1997 and no Alliance candidate standing in 2001.

Unionist Candidates
Unlike other recent Westminster elections, the Ulster Unionists will be contesting this election, fielding their Deputy Whip: Billy Armstrong MLA. If I'm interpreting his webpage correctly, he's a member of the Orange Order and the Royal Black Preceptory. He is also a former RUC part-time reservist.
At the same time, the DUP are running Ian McCrea, a member of Cookstown District Council and the District Policing Partnership as well as an Apprentice Boy. According to the DUP website he is also "an accomplished gospel recording artist" and, like all their candidates "the only candidate in [insert constituency here] capable of defeating Sinn Fein/IRA." McCrea came second with 31% in 2001's Westminster election.
Interestingly, this is one of what is surely a small number of seats where the UUP poll increased between 1998 and 2003's assembly elections (only by 0.5%, but still better than most).

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP's MLA for the constituency, Patsy McGlone is standing for Westminster in Mid-Ulster. McGlone is a graduate in Irish Studies and is also a member of Cookstown District Council. Apparently he's a member of Foras na Gaeilge (I'm not even going to look up what that is). The SDLP polled 17% in 2001 and McGlone will be doing well to build on this with the nationalist community's ever increasing willingness to vote cold-blooded killers into power (no offence to any nationalists who have resisted this for years, despite SF and friends' pretence they are a normal political party).
UPDATE: 25th April; The SDLP have accused saboteurs of trying to hamper the party's chances in the election after heavy ladders, a trailer and posters were stolen from the home of one of their councillors. BBC report
Needless to say, Sinn Fein's chief negotiator Martin McGuinness is seeking re-election this year. His web page states he became a member of the "Civil Rights Movement" in Londonderry in 1968 (it doesn't state what other groups he may have belonged to around that time). He was also education minister in the Northern Ireland executive, where his web page claims he was "widely acclaimed for his work," I'm not sure from whence this acclaim came, but it sure as hell wasn't from Northern Ireland's grammar schools. Opening Irish language schools with twelve pupils while closing other rural schools with many times that number is not a record I'd be proud of. Then again I'm not a stark raving bigot. After having polled 51% in 2001, his re-election seems fairly safe, especially with 2 unionist candidates standing.
The Workers Party, formerly official Sinn Fein, are also fielding Francis Donnolly, who polled 0.5% (230 votes) in 2001.

Prediction
Sinn Fein / Martin McGuinnes to hold with ~ 48%

Statistics

Westminster
2001: DUP 31% - SDLP 17% - SF 51%
1997: DUP 36% - SDLP 22% - SF 40%

Assembly
2003: DUP 21% - UUP 14% - SDLP 18% - SF 46%
1998: DUP 21% - UUP 14% - SDLP 22% - SF 41%