Everything Ulster - Election 2005

SOUTH Belfast is one of the older seats in Northern Ireland, in fact in one form or another it has been around since the birth of Northern Ireland in 1921 and further even as far back as the 19th century. South Belfast, with a population of ~ 95,000, is currently held by Martin Smyth of the Ulster Unionists who is stepping down this year after 23 years as MP for the constituency. As well as the southern quarter of Belfast City Council, it also takes in a little bit of the Castlereagh District Council area. With a potentially evenly split Unionist vote, and a 40% Catholic population, this seat should be one to watch.

[More:]

History
Since 1982 the seat has been held by Rev Martin Smyth for the Ulster Unionists. He was elected in a by-election after the IRA murdered the previous MP, Robert Bradford, also a UUP MP. They also went on to assasinate Assembly Member, Edgar Graham the following year. As best I can tell from Nicholas Whyte's election website, the seat has been held by a Unionist for over 100 years. It was considerably expanded in the boundary shakeup of 1995.

Unionist Candidates
Martin Smyth was strongly anti-agreement and this meant the DUP were happy to stand aside to ensure he topped the poll. This year, the unionist parties tried to come to an agreement that would see a single unionist candidate here, but negotiations were unsuccessful. The Ulster Unionists refused to give the DUP a free run in Fermanagh/South Tyrone and the constituency association elected Michael McGimpsey, seen as too moderate by many, as their candidate. The result is that the DUP are fielding their first candidate in South Belfast since 1983 in Jimmy Spratt, formerly an RUC officer and chairman of the police federation.
McGimpsey was Northern Ireland's minister for Culture, Arts and Leisure when the Assembly was up and running, and was a pro-agreement candidate. As well as being an MLA, he is also a councillor on Belfast City Council. He has maintained throughout that only he can win the seat for Unionism and that the DUP are in danger of handing it to the SDLP. Last week the UUP announced that they believed they were well in front of Spratt and an that these findings backed up a private NIO poll.
Spratt, in my opinion, doesn't have a lot of experience in politics. He is a member of the DPP and has been chairman of the police federation but hasn't been an elected representative, at any level.
Personally (as a South Belfast voter) I'm not impressed with either of the main Unionist candidates: Spratt because he is a political nobody, and McGimpsey because he seems quite unpopular with some (then again the same could be said of Trimble). Also, despite McGimpsey claim he would prefer Northern Ireland's new stadium to be in Belfast, after 2 letters from me (1 to his constituency office on Sandy Row, the other to the Members' Room at Belfast City Council), he never saw fit to reply - for that reason alone he isn't getting my vote.

Nationalist Candidates
The SDLP deputy leader (and Enterprise, Trade & Development and Europe spokesman) Alasdair McDonnell is standing in South Belfast and looks like a potential winner in this traditional Unionist seat (incidentally he's another one didn't reply to my letter about the stadium!). McDonnell, a GP in he Ormeau Road area, retired from Belfast City Council in 2001 to concentrate on Assembly work (oops!).
McDonnell, who has been standing in South Belfast General Elections since 1979 (missing only 1986), will need to attract votes away from his rival, Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey if he is to win the seat. Maskey, from Andersonstown in West Belfast, was recently Lord Mayor of Belfast. Given recent developments McDonnell might find gaining votes from Maskey easier than usual, given that Maskey allegedly condemned the police for searching the homes of suspects in the McCartney murder case, refused to condemn rioters disrupting said searches and dismissed the attack as an example of "knife culture".

Other Candidates
Geraldine Rice is standing for the Alliance party in South Belfast and given my lack of enthusiasm with any of the 2 Unionist candidates, and her impressive election literature, I'm severely tempted to vote for her. I was (pleasantly) surprised at the Alliance stance that a voluntary coalition is the way forward so long as Sinn Fein are wedded to violence and criminality and am very sympathetic to their philosophy that the border issue is settled (it will change if and only if a referendum decides it) and we need to focus on real issues and particularly tackling sectarianism. Like most constituencies, the Alliance vote has been weakening in recent years in South Belfast, dropping to a low of 5% in the 2001 General Election (from 13% in 1997).
Patrick Joseph Lynn is standing for the Worker's Party (formerly Official Sinn Fein). As usual, not much info on him. He first stood in South Belfast in 1992 and most recently in 2003 when he polled 96 votes (0.3%), down from 204 (0.5%) in 2001.
Journalist Lynda Gilby is standing in South Belfast, as well as the other 3 Belfast constituencies, for the Vote For Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket.

Prediction
McGimpsey - UUP hold ( ~ 30%)
This is the prediction I think I'm least sure of. The vote Unionist would have to be very evenly split, and McDonnell take a lot of Maskey's votes for the SDLP to win it - but that's not to say its impossible, and I wouldn't rule out Spratt winning either - despite opinion polls he is the bookies' favourite.

Statistics

General Elections
2001: UUP 45% - SDLP 31% - SF 8%
1997: UUP 36% - SDLP 24% - SF 5%
In 1997 the PUP's David Ervine took 14% of the vote here as a pro-agreement candidate.

Stormont Elections
2003: DUP 21% - UUP 27% - SDLP 23% - SF 13%
1998: DUP 13% - UUP 23% - SDLP 22% - SF 6%
In 1998 'other unionists', the Alliance and Women's Coalition all polled ~ 10% each