Everything Ulster - Election 2005

SOUTH Antrim, with a population of 99,810 which is just under 30% Catholic, will be a seat to watch for Unionists in this election. David Burnside will be defending the seat he won, from 8 month MP Rev Willie McCrea, in 2001. The seat takes in Antrim District Council, which is largely rural, and also includes Antrim Line (Glengormley) and Ballyclare DEAs from Newtownabbey Borough Council.

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History
South Antrim was created in 1948 when the Labour government split County Antrim into North Antrim and South Antrim. At this time East Antrim did not exist, and didn't come into being until 1983, when East Antrim and Lagan Valley (both new) ate into the South Antrim electorate. Since this election, the seat had been held by Clifford Forsythe for the UUP. However, Forsythe died in 2000 and a by-election was called, in which the DUP's William McCrea went on to top the poll after he had been ousted from his own constituency of Mid-Ulster, by Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness, in 1997 (following a major redrawing of the Mid-Ulster boundary in 1995, only 30% of the constituency remained the same). McCrea topped the 2000 South Antrim by-election with 38% to David Burnside's (UUP) 35%. McCrea only held the seat for 9 months though, as Burnside won the seat in the 2001 General Election by 37% to McCrea's 35%.

Unionist Candidates
The 2 Unionist rivals of 2000 and 2001 are both standing again this time, as David Burnside attempts to defend his 1,011 majority against the prevailing tide which seems to have turned against his party. Burnside studied Politics and Ancient History at Queen's University and is the UUP spokesman for Transport, Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (he sits on the Commons Select Committe) and the Cabinet Office. He has a strong business background, having worked in PR for both the Institute of Directors and British Airways, and has rencently called on Tony Blair to treat Gerry Adams as the "Irish Arafat".

DUP candidate Rev William McCrea, a "Gospel Recording Artist," has been, and remains, a Magherafelt councillor since 1973 and was MP for Mid-Ulster from 1983 to 1997, when he was ousted by McGuinness. He remains MLA for Mid-Ulster after having topped the poll there in 2003. This "2 feet in Mid-Ulster, one in South Antrim" policy may hurt him on Thursday.
According to his own web page on the DUP site, he is a hard worker within the constituency of South Antrim. Like most of their candidates in this election, the DUP seem to be emphasising McCrea's work in the constituency rather than at Westminster, which the UUP have chosen to focus on.

This race will be extremely tight, as results in recent years have had only one or two percent in it. I could easily see this going to McCrea on a good day (for him), but am personally hoping the fact that David Burnside's loyalty to South Antrim and business accument will see him through - in part because I don't want another Free Presbyterian minister on the green benches - but Burnside may need to rely on votes from Alliance supporters.

Nationalist Candidates
Despite having 30% of the population, the nationalist vote hasn't risen above 25% in recent years. Noreen McClelland of the SDLP and Sinn Fein's Henry Cushinan will be hoping to change that this year. McClelland, from Randalstown, is an SDLP representative on Newtownabbey Borough Concil in the Antrim Line ward. Since 1996 the SDLP vote has averaged 15% and McClelland will be hoping to build on this as one of the constituencies where the SDLP don't seem to have suffered as much as they have in some constituencies (yet) from the rise of Sinn Fein, and even had an MLA (Noreen's husband Donovan) elected in both 1998 and 2003 but Noreen's husband, Donovan, did lose his Assembly seat in 2003.
While the SDLP haven't seen a significant fall in their vote recently, the Sinn Fein vote has steadily grown from 5% in 1996's forum elections, to 11% in the 2003 Assembly elections, in which Martin Meehan famously gave a victory speech before going on to lose out on the seat to David Ford of the Alliance, who narrowly got through on Unionist transfers.

It has been alleged at cryptome.org, that the Sinn Fein candidate, Henry Cushinan, is a member of the IRA. I have no idea whether or not this is true, but obviously given Sinn Fein's reputation, would be totally unsurprised. Can't find out much else about him although google results suggest he may previously have served on Antrim Borough Council (he is not listed as a present councillor). All the Sinn Fein website has to say about him is that he is candidate for South Antrim - thanks for that one!

Other Candidates
Alliance leader David Ford is standing in South Antrim, where he was elected MLA in 2003 after receiving 9.1% of first preference votes and just enough transfers to beat Martin Meehan for the seat. Ford also has his own website at DavidFord.org

Prediction
UUP/David Burnside hold (~37%)

Statistics

Westminster Elections
2001: DUP 35% - UUP 37% - SDLP 12% - SF 9% - Alliance 9%
2000: DUP 38% - UUP 35% - SDLP 11% - SF 9% - Alliance 7%
1997: PUP 9% - UUP 57% - SDLP - 16% - SF 6% - Alliance 12%

Stormont Elections
2003: DUP 31% - UUP 30% - SDLP 14% - SF 11% - Alliance 9%
1998: DUP 20% - UUP 30% - SDLP 18% - SF 7% - Alliance 9%