Everything Ulster - Election 2005

My predictions through the Westminster Focus series are as follows:

DUP 7 - UUP 4 - SF 5 - SDLP 2

For seat by seat details and analysis as well as BetFair election odds and a free punt on the UK-wide General Election result, read on!

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East Antrim - Sammy Wilson DUP
East Belfast - Peter Robinson DUP
East Londonderry - Gregory Campbell DUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - Michell Gildernew SF
Foyle - Mark Durkan SDLP
Lagan Valley - Jeffrey Donaldson DUP
Mid-Ulster - Martin McGuinness SF
Newry & Armagh - Conor Murphy SF
North Antrim - Ian Paisley DUP
North Belfast - Nigel Dodds DUP
North Down - Lady Sylvia Hermon UUP
South Antrim - David Burnside UUP *
South Belfast - Michael McGimpsey UUP *
South Down - Eddie McGrady SDLP
Strangford - Iris Robinson DUP
West Belfast - Gerry Adams SF
West Tyrone - Pat Doherty SF
Upper Bann - David Trimble UUP *

I have to admit that my results are slightly optimistically biased in favour of the middle-ground and it would take a good day for these results to come through, particularly for Trimble and Durkan, whose seats could easily fall on a bad day. That said I believe these results are well within the realms of possibility, but all the seats I've called for the UUP (with the exception of Lady Hermon's) will be close run things - as illustrated by the asterisks, which I've placed beside predictions where BetFair's punters disagree with me. In fact, I'm tempted to have a punt on the UUP seats myself! One that surprised me is that unlike Trimble, Durkan seems to be the BetFair.com favourite.

The punters at BetFair election odds seem to think the UUP will be all but wiped from the Westminster map (although no bets are being taken on North Down)! Slightly different to what I've predicted. I've listed below the current odds for my predictions at BetFair.
For up to date odds check BetFair election odds under Marginal Seats - NI

If a seat is not listed, no bets are being taken on it. Odds are decimal and include your original stake, example:
E. Antrim - Sammy Wilson 1.07
if you place a £1 bet you will receive 7p winnings + £1 stake = £1.07

East Antrim
Wilson (DUP) 1.07
Beggs (UUP) 1.55
Anyone else 6.0

Fermanagh & S Tyrone
My Candidate: Gildernew (SF) 1.06,
Elliot (UUP) 7.0
Anyone else 2.0

Foyle
Durkan (SDLP) 1.4
McLaughlin (SF) 1.7
Anyone else 6.0

Lagan Valley
Donaldson (DUP) 1.02
B McCrea (UUP) 1.8
Anyone else 6.0

Newry & Armagh
Murphy (SF) 1.02
Bradley (SDLP) 1.55
Anyone else 6.0

South Antrim *
Burnside (UUP) 1.58
W McCrea (DUP) 1.1
Anyone else 11.0

South Belfast *
McGimpsey (UUP) 1.6
McDonnell (SDLP) 1.6
Anyone else 1.1

Strangford
Robinson (DUP) 1.01
G McGimpsey (UUP) 2.0
Anyone else 3.0

Upper Bann *
Trimble (UUP) 2.6
Simpson (DUP) 1.1
Anyone else 6.0

To place a bet on the Northern Ireland results, you can see what odds other people have laid at BetFair.com

If you prefer to bet on the UK-wide election result, you can have a FREE £25 bet on totesport (the election bets are under 'Specials').

Other Predictions
A Tangled Web:
DUP 10, UUP 1, Sinn Fein/IRA 6, SDLP 1
(ATW seat by seat)

Balrog:
DUP 7, UUP 2, SDLP 1/2, SF 6/7
(no details)