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Still No Takers for United Ireland
Andrew McCann has noted the publication of the 2005 Northern Ireland Life & Times survey this week and, much like last year, the results aren't great for those who want to leave the United Kingdom. This year's survey had a sample size of 1,200.
I've mapped out the answers for what I judge the 2 big tribal questions over the past 8 years below and there don't really seem to be any discernable upwards or downwards trends, with most figures staying within +/- 4% of an average value. What the results do show is that consistantly almost 2½ times as many people in Northern Ireland are expressing a preference for Northern Ireland to remain in the UK than are for merging it into an all-Ireland republic.
Follow up:
Highlights:
| 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Irelands Future | |||||||||
| Remain in UK | 58% | 59% | 55% | 55% | 50% | 60% | 56% | 57% | |
| Unify with Eire | 23% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 28% | 17% | 21% | 22% | |
| Independence | 7% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 6% | |
| Nationality | |||||||||
| British | 39% | 47% | 41% | 45% | 45% | 49% | 45% | 41% | |
| Irish | 28% | 27% | 27% | 28% | 30% | 22% | 29% | 27% | |
| Northern Irish | 27% | 21% | 24% | 19% | 27% | 20% | 19% | 23% | |
I think questions have to be raised though, when you look at the results for voting preference, only 9% say they'd vote Sinn Fein, which isn't really consistent with their 24% of the vote in the 2005 Westminster election, nor does the DUP's 18% support tally with their 34% in the same elections. It would make you wonder either about how honest the answers were or how representative the sample was.
I've tried to reproduce the figures accurately from the ARK NILT website, but there may by mistakes and/or typos. Feel free to point these out below for correction.
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10 comments
Comment from: Barry [Visitor]
If this survey is in anyway accurate doesn't it show that Sinn Fein/IRA's dream of a united Ireland outside of the UK is just a pipe dream which is very unlikely to ever come about?
There are few logical reasons why the people of NI would want to join the Republic when its culture is in quite a few aspects markedly different to NI's.
There are few logical reasons why the people of NI would want to join the Republic when its culture is in quite a few aspects markedly different to NI's.
23 Jun 2006 @ 02:46
It's worth noting too that rather than highlight these figures the media seem to have focused on the race-related questions - apparently more respondents (particularly Protestants apparently) admitted to feeling some degree of racial prejudice. A point worth noting yes, but the fact they highlighted this shows they were aware of the publication and completely ignored the constitutional questions. I wonder why that might be...
23 Jun 2006 @ 20:55
Comment from: stevey2005 [Member] 
I feel the 1,200 used in thre sample isnt too accurate or else sinn fein/ira's dream of a united ireland will be a few decades off yet!!
27 Jun 2006 @ 08:46
Comment from: Niall Gormley [Visitor]
The figures are obviously skewed a little bit as in the past a lot of people are afraid to admit voting for Sinn Fein or the DUP. But also it takes into account the whole electorate and not only those who vote. Those who hold less moderate views are probably more likely to vote.
An interesting question is why do some 42% vote for pro-united Ireland parties and then not aspire to a United Ireland. My guess is that this is based on a pragmatic outlook. While many would like a United Ireland they wouldn't want the hassle (voilence and sectarion tension) that the transition would entail. There is always a large sympathy for the status quo. And, of course, the question doesn't ask about the desire for compromise between the two polar aspirations.
An interesting question is why do some 42% vote for pro-united Ireland parties and then not aspire to a United Ireland. My guess is that this is based on a pragmatic outlook. While many would like a United Ireland they wouldn't want the hassle (voilence and sectarion tension) that the transition would entail. There is always a large sympathy for the status quo. And, of course, the question doesn't ask about the desire for compromise between the two polar aspirations.
27 Jun 2006 @ 11:22
You're probably right about the percentage of those who don't vote making up a considerable amount of the difference, though I think it'd be depressing if I believed any substantial number of people only chose the Union because they were scared of violence. I do wonder, given the fact that it's only an opinion poll, would that actually deter them from choosing their preferred option anyway.
Stevey - I would be quite surprised if the results weren't a bit further apart than the 51%-49% republicans would like to believe in.
Stevey - I would be quite surprised if the results weren't a bit further apart than the 51%-49% republicans would like to believe in.
27 Jun 2006 @ 18:42
Comment from: Howard [Visitor]
"I feel the 1,200 used in thre sample isnt too accurate or else sinn fein/ira's dream of a united ireland will be a few decades off yet!!"
I'm pretty sure there won't be one for as long as we can predict.
I'm pretty sure there won't be one for as long as we can predict.
02 Jul 2006 @ 13:27
Comment from: kensei [Visitor]
So, as pointed out by you, either the sample is extremely wrong, or people aren't admitting their true preference. Election results are a far more accurate indicator - 40%ish for proUI parties, and this would be consistent with 15% of SF vote missing.
So... good base, demographic trends still going our way but work to do. 45% isn't unreasonable in 15 years and that leaves 5% to convince. Tough, but not impossible.
So... good base, demographic trends still going our way but work to do. 45% isn't unreasonable in 15 years and that leaves 5% to convince. Tough, but not impossible.
02 Jul 2006 @ 18:45
Kensei to take the results at face value would be simplistic to the point of naivity, but alas so is your acceptance of election results at face value.
Even from people I've met who vote for Sinn Fein, there are some who are quite happy with the status quo. There are various reasons why people vote Sinn Fein and ending the union is just one. They are, for some reason, perceived by some to "get things done" and be hard workers for their constituents (probably due to their policy of continuis neglect of their legislative duties). I'm sure there are also those who vote SDLP because of their social democratic credentials as much as their nationalist ones.
The truth is, aside from a straightforward border poll, we'll never really know exactly how many people favour ending the Union, but I belive the results of this survey are enough to cast serious doubt on spurious claims like 40% support for a UI based on election results.
Even from people I've met who vote for Sinn Fein, there are some who are quite happy with the status quo. There are various reasons why people vote Sinn Fein and ending the union is just one. They are, for some reason, perceived by some to "get things done" and be hard workers for their constituents (probably due to their policy of continuis neglect of their legislative duties). I'm sure there are also those who vote SDLP because of their social democratic credentials as much as their nationalist ones.
The truth is, aside from a straightforward border poll, we'll never really know exactly how many people favour ending the Union, but I belive the results of this survey are enough to cast serious doubt on spurious claims like 40% support for a UI based on election results.
02 Jul 2006 @ 23:21
Comment from: kensei [Visitor]
"Kensei to take the results at face value would be simplistic to the point of naivity, but alas so is your acceptance of election results at face value."
I know, I know. The actual democratic will of the people should not be taken at face value.
Even from people I've met who vote for Sinn Fein, there are some who are quite happy with the status quo. "
Then they are lying to you. A lot. You'd have more luck suggesting the Stoops are all West Brits.
And there is this idea that there are no Protestants who want a UI, but lots of Catholics going th eother way. Bizarre.
"I belive the results of this survey are enough to cast serious doubt on spurious claims like 40% support for a UI based on election results."
Of course you do, because in the end "All lies and jest, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".
I know, I know. The actual democratic will of the people should not be taken at face value.
Even from people I've met who vote for Sinn Fein, there are some who are quite happy with the status quo. "
Then they are lying to you. A lot. You'd have more luck suggesting the Stoops are all West Brits.
And there is this idea that there are no Protestants who want a UI, but lots of Catholics going th eother way. Bizarre.
"I belive the results of this survey are enough to cast serious doubt on spurious claims like 40% support for a UI based on election results."
Of course you do, because in the end "All lies and jest, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".
04 Jul 2006 @ 19:04
"I know, I know. The actual democratic will of the people should not be taken at face value."
I'm disappointed Kensei, as you know fine right there has never been a border poll to test the democratic will of the people. I'm sure you're aware a larger percentage of voters stay at home in unionist constituencies than nationalist ones, suggesting that in the event of a border poll (assuming a near 100% turnout) support for unification with the Republic would be less than the success of political parties at election results would suggest.
The fact is that election results, like this survey, are no more than an indication, and certainly not a guarantee, of the outcome of any border-poll.
"And there is this idea that there are no Protestants who want a UI, but lots of Catholics going th eother [sic] way. Bizarre."
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2005/Political_Attitudes/NIRELAND.html
The results are right there at the bottom of the page in black and white.
I'm disappointed Kensei, as you know fine right there has never been a border poll to test the democratic will of the people. I'm sure you're aware a larger percentage of voters stay at home in unionist constituencies than nationalist ones, suggesting that in the event of a border poll (assuming a near 100% turnout) support for unification with the Republic would be less than the success of political parties at election results would suggest.
The fact is that election results, like this survey, are no more than an indication, and certainly not a guarantee, of the outcome of any border-poll.
"And there is this idea that there are no Protestants who want a UI, but lots of Catholics going th eother [sic] way. Bizarre."
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2005/Political_Attitudes/NIRELAND.html
The results are right there at the bottom of the page in black and white.
04 Jul 2006 @ 19:43
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