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The Triple-Threat of Nationalism


EU's third guest post sees Paul of N. Irish Magyar fame once again returning with his thoughts on some of the different nationalisms found on the Celtic fringe of the United Kingdom.
The continuing diversity of the United Kingdom is today threatened by primarily three types of nationalism from within its borders; Irish, Ulster and Scottish. All three have the capability, given the correct circumstances, of destroying the Union.
You may find surprising for me to say, but I suspect that Irish nationalism is the version which poses the least danger. If the last decade or so, since the cessation of the IRA's campaign, have shown anything, it is that Irish nationalism/republicanism have as little idea as political unionism about how to garner electoral support beyond its own narrow voter-base to build a political movement which can genuinely appeal beyond the traditional religious and communal borders. Their present tactics appear to have dual focus, the demoralization of the unionist population and working with the two governments above the heads of the population of Northern Ireland in order to create an "All-Ireland" framework. Both tactics have no chance of achieving a true United Ireland, that of all its people, as opposed to the territory, they also ignore the fact that the real battle is that to be fought for the increasingly apathetic centre, the 35% or so who no, longer vote but who are becoming unionists (with a definite small 'u' ) by economic default in absence of anything more constructive being offered by Irish nationalism. The "Ack sure it’ll all fall into place when we get our Fourth Field back†school of economics is making very little headway in 2006 amongst this cynical hard-bitten sector of the electorate.
Ironically, Ulster nationalism in its most basic (and crudest) mono-ethnic/religious form poses a much greater threat to Northern Ireland’s place within and the wider concept of the Union. It refuses to countenance any deviance form the "No Surrender", "No Pope Here" brand of Pseudo-Unionism until very recently exemplified perfectly by the DUP's head honcho. This threat, and the necessity of Unionism embracing diversity, we'll deal with in a subsequent post.
The third and most immediate threat to the unity of the UK is that presented by Scottish nationalism.
Next May will see the elections to the Scottish parliament. If present opinion polls are to be believed then, not only will the SNP be forming a government (probably in coalition with the political prostitutes of the Liberal Democrats) but also a majority of Scots favour the complete independence option.
So will next year (the 300th anniversary of The Act of Union as it just so happens) see the beginning of the end of our nation?
I think not and I also believe it’s also in the interests of unionists throughout the UK that the SNP do win next year and that the referendum on Scottish Independence is called for as soon as possible.
The large reason for the growth in support for the SNP is because of disillusionment with the effects of devolution and also the unpopularity of the present Labour Executive. But their (the SNP's) policies have, as a consequence, slipped from public consciousness and if and when they do get power, the "one-trick pony" nature of the party will be revealed and as a result, I'm convinced that both the SNP and their fundamental raison d’etre will face closer scrutiny. In other words, give the SNP short-term power and let's see what happens to the public's support for Scottish independence...
If the referendum does happen, then the economic consequences of leaving the UK, for example, will come to the forefront of the debate. Could an independent Scotland survive on its own? Yes, but minus the annual £20 billion from the central Exchequer, not in the manner to which its citizens have become accustomed. Of course, there is always the hope, as an independent country, of attracting increased EU funding, but with most of eastern European and two of the Balkan countries also competing for this money, it's not a very realistic one.
And would multinationals be more or less likely to set up in a country which has cut itself adrift from the 5th biggest economy and third biggest financial centre in the world?
An independent Scotland, I'd guess, would fit in somewhere below Greece and a little above Slovakia in the EU Economic table, would that be good enough for the "average" Scot?
How much is the "average" Scot prepared to sacrifice financially for independence?I believe that such a referendum would also galvanise the Labour Party in Britain as a whole; strange as it may seem for Northern Irish readers, for purely party political reasons it makes sense for Labour to become more pro-active in supporting the Union and ensuring Scotland remains a part of the UK. Labour in Scotland struggled in the last General Election, winning only 41 instead of the usual 50-55 seats. But with Labour under new management and the Conservative Party, at last, starting to wake up and giving an appearance of being capable of winning again at the ballot box, then those Scottish seats could well be the deciding factor whether Labour stays in power at Westminster or not. Additionally, for the Labour Party in Scotland, fighting to ensure a Labour Scottish PM at Number 10 must be a very tempting one. Also, once Scotland had left the UK, the temptation for the Tories to play the English nationalist card would only become stronger, leading to… who know what? The prospect of employment controls on Scots working in England and much stronger economic competition between the two new "states"? There would be only one winner in such a competition.
So, for the three reasons outlined above, I believe that a SNP victory and the subsequent debate on independence prior to any referendum would give the Scottish people the chance to assess the benefits and costs they receive and incur from being part of the UK and more specifically, what they would have to sacrifice in event of full independence. After this assessment, I'm confident that a majority of at least 15% will be in favour of remaining a part of a multicultural and diverse UK. And this surely would be the final nail in the coffin for the Scottish separatist movement...
The Scottish people have always boxed above their weight within the United Kingdom, it's in both Scotland's and the nation's long-term interest that this situation continues.
I personally found the omission of English nationalism, in my view one of the fastest growing threats to the Union, interesting. Whether it's based on the apparent growing resentment among many English folk about subsidising the often soviet-like Celtic periphery, and the apparent disparity brought to the fore by devolution to Scotland and Wales (and maybe us too), or based on a backlash against the perception of modern Britishness as inherently multicultural (and therefore not definitive enough for some), English nationalism seems to be on the rise and, given that England forms the largest part of this Union, could pose the biggest threat of all IMHO.
