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Peter's task ahead
Remember that letter that wasn't a letter and didn't exist that was never written and never shown to Ian Paisley which didn't make clear to him that he was to stand down? The number 33 hangs in the air when signatures are mentioned. Have a ponder on that number.
Whatever it was or wasn't, and no matter who did and didn't sign it, it worked, and now Peter Robinson has quite a job on his hands. He has a balancing act to perform to an extent that Paisley never did. As Jim Allister has articulated Robinson isn't Paisley and wont be able to carry party opinion so readily and so dogmatically. What we know or can very safely assume is Robinson as First Minister, Dodds to Finance, Foster where she is and Poots is likely toast. So who gets DETI, DECAL and the junior ministers bag?
Robinson will have to keep the religious wing happy beyond just Dodds. Gregory Campbell is probably key to that given his attitude over the past year, leading to the strong chance that he will be offered DECAL or DETI. Which is a very different proposition to him accepting such an offer. Will he stomach sitting around the Executive table with McGuinness? If not, who else from his 'side' of the DUP would accept to help Robinson balance his appointments?
And then what of Donaldson? There have been suggestions that he is being kept warm for Policing and Justice, but will he be happy remaining as a junior minister waiting for something he himself says isn't happening anytime soon? If not Simon Hamilton will probably take the junior seat. But even if he is happy to stay where he is, there is a suggestion that he has been fishing in very much the wrong pond the past few weeks.
There is a bit of wreckage for Robinson to clear up in May. The chopping and changing of Ministers, junior and senior, together with appointments to the policing board and chairmanships of committees recently has been messy, and will be more so when Peter does it again to put his stamp on it. It's not at all likely that there will be a night of the long knives, but what happens if Gregory is belligerent? What if he, McCrea (x2), Simpson, Storey, Wells, in short the 12 disciples and their successors, aren't convinced? A lot of them are vulnerable to defection. And then the TUV become a serious party much quicker than they might.
We certainly live in interesting times.