on 08 Mar 2008 at 20:54. Categories: News, United Kingdom, Northern Ireland, Politics, Devolved Government

Remember that letter that wasn't a letter and didn't exist that was never written and never shown to Ian Paisley which didn't make clear to him that he was to stand down? The number 33 hangs in the air when signatures are mentioned. Have a ponder on that number.

Whatever it was or wasn't, and no matter who did and didn't sign it, it worked, and now Peter Robinson has quite a job on his hands. He has a balancing act to perform to an extent that Paisley never did. As Jim Allister has articulated Robinson isn't Paisley and wont be able to carry party opinion so readily and so dogmatically. What we know or can very safely assume is Robinson as First Minister, Dodds to Finance, Foster where she is and Poots is likely toast. So who gets DETI, DECAL and the junior ministers bag?

Robinson will have to keep the religious wing happy beyond just Dodds. Gregory Campbell is probably key to that given his attitude over the past year, leading to the strong chance that he will be offered DECAL or DETI. Which is a very different proposition to him accepting such an offer. Will he stomach sitting around the Executive table with McGuinness? If not, who else from his 'side' of the DUP would accept to help Robinson balance his appointments?

And then what of Donaldson? There have been suggestions that he is being kept warm for Policing and Justice, but will he be happy remaining as a junior minister waiting for something he himself says isn't happening anytime soon? If not Simon Hamilton will probably take the junior seat. But even if he is happy to stay where he is, there is a suggestion that he has been fishing in very much the wrong pond the past few weeks.

There is a bit of wreckage for Robinson to clear up in May. The chopping and changing of Ministers, junior and senior, together with appointments to the policing board and chairmanships of committees recently has been messy, and will be more so when Peter does it again to put his stamp on it. It's not at all likely that there will be a night of the long knives, but what happens if Gregory is belligerent? What if he, McCrea (x2), Simpson, Storey, Wells, in short the 12 disciples and their successors, aren't convinced? A lot of them are vulnerable to defection. And then the TUV become a serious party much quicker than they might.

We certainly live in interesting times.

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Comment from: Seamus [Member]

· http://entrytoanirishmind.blogspot.com/

I don't think there will be all that many changes to the DUP parts of the executive. I think he will keep Dodds, Foster and Poots all in place, move wee Jeffrey to Finance (Donaldson is a staunch ally of Robinson) and then probably Simon Hamilton to Junior Minister. Eventually probably Campbell in Policing and Justice. If I was a betting man, that would be the way I could see them lining up. It's going to be a perilous time for the DUP anyway so they will try to keep the chopping and changing to a minimum.

08 Mar 2008 @ 21:50

Comment from: beano [Member]

· http://www.everythingulster.com

I'm hoping to God the only change is Dodds to finance. Donaldson can't be allowed near DCAL or Finance or he'll blow the whole budget on the Maze. It's bad enough having Poots there, although I hadn't thought of the possibility of anyone having the balls to ship him out.

What if Robbo replaced Poots with Campbell. Campbell's at least an NI fan - he's at least neutral on the Maze, which is better than Poots, and being from Londonderry he'd put paid to this "them Belfast ones want everythin' in Belfast" bullshit.

Other than that I'm not too bothered what the DUP do. One of my main concerns was that Robbo seemed to do a good job at F&P and there'd be a vacuum there now.

08 Mar 2008 @ 23:12

Comment from: Michael Shilliday [Member]

DECAL is tricky. I'd say Campbell is every bit as biased on the Maze as Poots, just the other way. That could be Robinson's concession to the religious wing.

08 Mar 2008 @ 23:16

Comment from: Seamus [Member]

· http://entrytoanirishmind.blogspot.com/

I still think that the DUP will try and leave as much unchanged. The DUP have been ruled by Paisley for 40 years. Robinson will not survive long if he comes in and starts to change everything. I think he will appoint a staunch ally to the Finace job, so I think he will give that to wee Jeffrey.

The problem with the Maze is that the only people who want it are the people making the decisions about it. I think I'm safe in assuming most Norn Iron supporters are against it, and as far as I am aware, the majority of grass roots GAA members don't particularly want it either, while Rugby seems indifferent to it. I just can't see them replacing Poots as Minister for Culture.

09 Mar 2008 @ 00:04

Comment from: beano [Member]

· http://www.everythingulster.com

Michael, the only quotes I was able to find from Campbell on the Maze was that he didn't want it as long as there was going to be a terror-shrine attached. I realise that's not really an optional feature, but I don't think he's against having a stadium in the arsehole of nowhere per se. It's an improvement on Poots but I'd rather there was someone in DCAL who could see the rather longer list of sporting and/or economic reasons.

Seamus, you're right on that too. The Rugby ones are supporting it because they won't have to use it unless they actually need to, most matches will remain at Ravenhill. GAA don't want to be seen as the spoilers hence their conditional backing (that's not a criticism, that's their job to get the best for their sport) and the football fans don't want it because they end up in a half empty, soulless stadium, 3 miles from the nearest city (Lisburn), stuck in a traffic jam getting in or out on the one available road with nothing to do before or after the match.

</rant>

09 Mar 2008 @ 13:08

Comment from: Seamus [Member]

· http://entrytoanirishmind.blogspot.com/

Personally on the new stadium, (and I can't believe I'm agreeing with Michael "The Gimp" McGimpsey on this one) is to take the £60M that is being used to build this waste of space, divide it into three, give £20M to the IRFU to do up Ravenhill, give £20M to the IFA to do up Windsor Park, and give £20M to the GAA to do up Casement Park, so the North then goes from having one World Class stadium to have three World Class stadiums.

09 Mar 2008 @ 13:23

Comment from: Da [Visitor]

It's hard to credit, Seamus, but I am in agreement with you on this one too.
If they must throw the money around throw it in such a way that people are getting what they want (or at least heading in the direction of what they want.)

09 Mar 2008 @ 18:04

Comment from: beano [Member]

· http://www.everythingulster.com

It could be a lot worse/more than £60 million. The recent PWC report was talking about £240 million and certainly £110m has been mentioned a lot previous to that. I'm not sure whether that was all public money or not is the only thing. According to some southern papers the Maze is dead in the water, but I'm not celebrating just yet.

09 Mar 2008 @ 18:59

Comment from: Seamus [Member]

· http://entrytoanirishmind.blogspot.com/

I think the £240 million is for the entire site, including the Conflict Transformation Centre, the infrustructure, like roads, trains etc, shops and then I think about £60M-£80M for the actual stadium.

09 Mar 2008 @ 19:03

Comment from: beano [Member]

· http://www.everythingulster.com

Fair enough, I'll have to admit I've lost track.

09 Mar 2008 @ 19:07

Comment from: Seamus [Member]

· http://entrytoanirishmind.blogspot.com/

A bit of hope is that Peter Robinson, the probable new leader of the DUP has said "I'm a Belfast MP - clearly I have a view that the best place to have anything is in Belfast". I still think the best idea is the scrap a multi-sport stadium all together, but if they aren't, better have it in Belfast, rather than in the arse hole of no-where.

09 Mar 2008 @ 19:12

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