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Where we were in 1998
I was recently required to do an analysis of an academic research paper. A colleague I was working with chose this one, which I hadn't read before. There are some fascinating things in the responses.
Page 6 of the PDF shows the huge swing in support for the agreement before finally resting where it started. I'm a bit dubious about the unexplained sharp rises towards the end of the campaign, but maybe I'm just forgetting something. Page 8 highlights the fact that the republic had a vote one third larger than in the north, but 10 times more spoilt ballots.
On page 11 we get into the really interesting stuff. Only half of Protestant no voters objected to power sharing. Two thirds of them supported the establishment of an assembly. 86% of catholic nationalists supported NI remaining in the UK, and half supported the removal of articles 2 & 3. Over 80 percent of all protestants felt that the IRA should complete its surrender BEFORE SF were allowed in Government.
Page 13 shows that Trimble had at least 50% approval ratings across the board. 50% of no voters trusted him, compared to 27% of yes voters approval for Paisley. Paisley and Adams had the square root of no cross community support.
History has without doubt shown that Trimble was right in the broad picture. But I wouldn't be surprised of even the man himself now recognises that his timing was very slightly, but critically, wrong.
But we all got there in the end.