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Powell Implicates SDLP In Own Demise
Jonathan Powell, advisor to Tony Blair in the Good Friday Agreement era and a man attracting a lot of press on Slugger lately regarding his new book on that time, was on Simon Mayo's show on Radio 5 at lunch time today talking about his book and the events leading up to the Good Friday Agreement. He said something that got me thinking.
That was that the deal Tony Blair had been trying to strike originally was a deal between the 'moderate' and dominant parties in Northern Ireland: the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP. When the SDLP said they couldn't come along without Sinn Fein, Powell claims that it then became a case of ensuring that a deal could be done between the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein.
Follow up:
In my view and, from what I gather that of many others, the excessive pandering to Sinn Fein which followed was undoubtedly a major contributing factor in the subsequent drop in support for the deal and the Ulster Unionists who promoted it. Trimble, his party, the victims of terrorism and the unionist people were effectively being hung out to dry.
So did the SDLP effectively sideline themselves? Was it really necessary to broker a deal between the extremes rather than the more progressive parties? Just how much did the SDLP's insistence on bringing and keeping the Provos on board contribute to the current situation where the assembly is dominated by the 'hard-liners' of the DUP and Sinn Fein, with the more-pragmatic parties sidelined?
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Remember, without bring Sinn Féin with them the following wouldn't have happened.
1) An end to the Troubles
2) Decommissioning
3) And end to "criminality"
4) Republicans taking part in Policing Structures
All four of the above would never have happened if Sinn Féin wasn't brought along. I don't credit the Stoops with a lot, but something I would have to say is that John Hume and Séamus Mallon both would have sacrificed the SDLP for peace. Thank Christ Mark Durkan and Alex "the Ballacks" Attwood weren't in charge of the Stoops then or we may be talking about the Good Friday Agreement in the same breath as Sunningdale and James Prior's Rolling Devolution.
The decline in SDLP voters only enforces the fact that certain parts of the community (in vast numbers) are quite willing to support terrorism.
Contrast the Sinn Fein vote with that for the PUP. Just a bit of a difference?
You say that like it is a bad thing.
"Josef Stalin wasn't a Terrorist" That's probably debatable.
Since nobody else seems bothered with the topic at hand I'll advance a theory.
If the SDLP had gone ahead and done a deal without Sinn Fein, or excluded them later when they had the chance, the IRA could not have returned to wholesale violence because of the changing international attitudes to terrorist (sorry Seamus) violence.
Nationalists would have been left with a
1)vote for a party in government who could effect change; or
2) vote for a group of thugs now free to revel in the martyrdom of their own exclusion.
How would that have effected voting patterns in the nationalist community and, had they altered in favour of the SDLP, would there have been less of a move to the extremes of Paisley within the unionist electorate?
If the SDLP had done a deal without Sinn Féin, they probably would have been crucified at the ballot box for ignoring a large section of the Nationalist people, just so they could cosy up to David Trimble.
Also, even if international opinion [and by international opinion, a guess you mean America] had turned sour, the IRA could have still operated, just maybe with less effectiveness.
Also, beano, I will draw you to the last line of my previous post. "It's peoples actions that define them, not what petty label you give them". I don't use the term terrorist, not so I can avoid the wrong things that the IRA did. I don't use it because it is misleading. Some of the actions carried out by the British Army where worse than those carried out by the IRA. Most of the actions by the IDF are worse than those carried out by the PLO and Hamas. A lot of the actions carried out by the Colombians is worse than those carried out by FARC. Yet because the British Army, the IDF and the Colombian Army aren't Terrorists, people have a tendency to gloss over their murder campaigns.
"People who compare Al-Qaeda to the IRA are doing no more than highlighting their own stupidity and bigotry"
No Seamus, those who ignore the blindingly obvious and extensive similarities are highlighting their own stupidity and bigotry (see, we can throw insults back and forth all day). The fact is many people do compare them, and with good reason.
I'm not sure the SDLP would have been crucified if they jumped on the train and left the station without SF. It's entirely possible, and not unlikely, but I'll be charitable to the nationalist electorate and entertain the notion that they would actually choose a party of peace over one of war, as they had done for some decades previously.
That said, if they the crucifixion had happened, I still think it would have been largely self-inflicted. John Hume did good work in attaining a ceasefire, but he and his successors went much too far out of their way to legitimise the Provos. In the end it cost them. On one hand it would have been nice to have done a deal with democrats (albeit a bit late) but on the other its hard to pity them.
Contrast the Sinn Fein vote with that for the PUP. Just a bit of a difference?"
Ah yes, the old "unionists are better than nationalists bullshit!" I won't even go there as that wasn't the point of Beano's post (but, believe me, I could).
The SDLP did sideline themselves to an extent as they allowed SF to steal their clothes to an extent (whilst putting on ridiculous "post nationalist" attire themselves - take a bow Alex Attwood).
The age-profile of the SDLP didn't help - Hume, Mallon and Brige Rodgers were coming to the end of their careers and their replacements weren't up to much.
My point is that, in my view, the decline of the SDLP was not down to pandering to SF so much as a number of other factors that occurred after the GFA - some of which were the fault of the SDLP and others which were out of their hands (SF's clever use of PR and their formidable election machine; the age demographic of nationalist voters - a lot more young turks).
"those who ignore the blindingly obvious and extensive similarities"
What similarities are these, Beano?
Bullshit....really? I think the statistics speak quite clearly for themselves i.e. significantly more Nationalists support the IRA than Unionists support the UVF. Not Bullshit just a fact. A fact that someone even as blinkered as yourself should see Reg.
As to the SDLP. I think thier support for Sinn Fein was a tactical error. It showed, for one thing, thier true colours to mainstram Unionism.
They had a chance to more forward with the UUP but they blew it and blew it big-time. Left the door open to the nonsense we have now.
Er yes. You've conveniently left out the DUP's terrorist links - Ulster Resistance, Third Force etc (conveniently disgarded when it suited them).
Anyway, your argument is no doubt based on the electoral fortunes of SF v the PUP/UDP - not quite the same thing as support for the IRA v the UVF and the like. The UDA had quite a large membership in the 1970s without getting many votes.
Of course leaving politics aside there were the "legitimate" forces of the B Specials and the UDR - basically paramilitary groups that enjoyed the widespread support of unionists.
Your moral superiority complex is a bit silly; neither community were angels.
As for the USC/UDR. LOL. It's not even worth a response.
The sad part of it all is that the Nationionalist community have rejected the Democratic and legitimate politics of the SDLP en masse and have given thier full blessing to those who think violence is the answer.
And when did the vote for SF increase?? After the ceasefire. So clearly not....
Is Mary Lou McDonald a terrorist??? Catriona Ruane???
The majority of the Unionists community voted for a party who's:
-Current leader was in jail for incitement to hatred
-Incumbent leader was in jail in the republic for terrorising the small town of Clontibret
I wasn't comparing their activities. That's not the point. Of course, UR and TF (given the very support that you claim didn't exist) were much greater terrorist threats than the IRA ever could have been.
Some nationalists voted for a party with links to a paramilitary/terrorist grouping; as did some unionists.
Also, as Dantheman points out, the SF vote only increased significantly following the IRA ceasefire and, again, after the GFA - hardly a vote for violence!
"As for the USC/UDR. LOL. It's not even worth a response."
Stumped for a reply are we?!
So, now that we have established that over half of the Unionists who voted, voted for the DUP/Ulster Resistance terrorists, should Junkmale withdraw his hate filled, anti Nationalist, xenophobic, sectarian remarks? (I was wondering how many adjectives I could fit into that last sentence. It's all down to those brilliant English lessons that Chekov gave me in a previous topic)
"As for the USC/UDR. LOL."
Glad to see that a Unionist is finally seeing that the Orange Order was heavily involved in the Troubles. It must be easier for the Unionists to be all high and mighty with us measly Fenians, if they disregard all the stuff that the UDR and the B-Men did to Catholics in the North.
"Of course, UR and TF ... were much greater terrorist threats than the IRA ever could have been."
Beano, if I am not mistaking, Reg is stating that if we are linking support of Terrorists with the amount of votes their "allies" got, then the Ulster Resistance (through the DUP) had more support, and those more capabilities than the IRA. I could be wrong, so we do need Reg to clarify.
Ulster Resistance turned out to be a bit of a joke. Nevertheless, the UWC strike in the 70s showed just how much havoc could be caused when political unionism (in the form of the DUP and its supporters) and paramilitary loyalism combined. Ulster Resistance an actual unified paramilitary embodiment of this combination and so had the potential to be cause much more instability/chaos/violence than the IRA.
You make a good point though, Beano. Support for the DUP did not equal support for UR (and vice-versa). The same is true of the Provos and SF - particularly since the late 90s when the SF vote increased up to and beyond the SDLP vote.
I'm sure that's how some of their voters look at it too, but it's much harder to draw that distinction (and believe me I would like to) when SF incessantly eulogise their 'volunteers' to the point where they attempt (no matter how facetious that attempt may or may not have been) to hold a memorial for a bomber at Stormont.
I think that's an important difference, at least from a unionist point of view. I think Paisley and Robinson would like to forget UR if they could (though I could be wrong on that), where a vote for SF, who not only maintain but regularly proclaim the 'rightness' of their violent campaign, is seen as retrospectively endorsing the IRA.
Seamus I suggest you read up on your German History. During the Munich Putsch the brownshirts attempted to subvert a democratically elected state, killed several people (including a policeman) and robbed a bank (sound familiar?
I have been accused of many things in the past. The principle one is being cynical. Did Doc and Robbo leave Ulster Resistance when they found out UR imported guns, or when the public found out they were importing guns.
"Paisley and Robinson would like to forget UR if they could"
Don't know why? Paisley stiled his political career on Edward Carson, so creating a Terrorist organisation and importing guns comes with the Territory.
Incidently the last Irish taoiseach to obtain a dail majority was Jack Lynch.
Indeed, Mike. And...the most important point in my view is that, while the Nazis were the biggest party, the majority of the German people did not vote for a Nazi dictatorship. A point often forgotten.
SF make no bones and actually boast about the various acts of terrorism the IRA carried out during the Troubles. The DUP try to hide any involvement that they may have had with loyalist terrorism under the carpet. That should tell you something about their two respective electorates.
Aye, but I'd say that has more to do with hiding any involvement from the forces of law and order than from the electorate!
Also, this may interest you oneill, 34.58% of the people killed by Republicans, where civilian. 82.94% of Loyalist kills where civilian. 51.66% of people killed by the British Army, were civilians. So, you will actually find that the British Army where not the perfect little angels you and the rest of your community think they are oneill.
OK, taking your three specific examples:
At the time (and for a long time afterwards), it was believed that Miami Show band and Dublin and Monaghan attrocities were solely the work of loyalist paramilitaries.
If it had been known at the time that rogue members of the security forces had been involved, do you think:
a) These criminals would be held in the level of veneration Sinn Fein and the reublican community in general affords to their criminal and gangsters who were involved in similar attrocities?
b) Would either the UUP or the DUP still receive the same level of support that they presently do if they came out openly and said that they believe that people like Johnny Adair, Billy Wright, the Shankill butchers and the rogue members of the security forces fought a just war, although unfortunately sometimes mistakes may have been made?
Regarding Bloody Sunday, same argument really, the paras involved are not regarded as heroes by the vast majority of the Unionist community, there aren’t regular marches and commemorations at Windsor Park in their honour. If they decided to stand for election on the basis of their “war-record” it’s extremely doubtful they’d be elected.
That’s the difference.
They also looked the other way when the British Army imposed a ghetto on the Falls Road and then arrested and imprisoned innocent people in concentration camps, just because of their religion
Are you aware that there were also large numbers of loyalists interned?
Was that also because of their religion do you think?
If you’re even attempting to compare internment (which I personally think was a mistake) with what the nazis did to their Jewish fellow-citizens, then shame on you.
Also, this may interest you oneill, 34.58% of the people killed by Republicans, where civilian. 82.94% of Loyalist kills where civilian. 51.66% of people killed by the British Army, were civilians
It does interest me, have you got a link for those figures?
Apologies for interupting the flow of this thread.
===================================================
O'Neill,
I'm not a Republican troll - I've responded in greater detail to your attack on me over on the "Attacked for Being a Brit"
thread.
ANO
Republican Paramilitaries killed 2056 people in that time period, with 711 of them being civilians. That is 34.58%.
Loyalist Paramilitaries killed 1020 people in the same period, with 846 of them being civilians. That is 82.94%
The British Security Forces directly [probably more when collusion is taken into account] killed 362 people in that time period. 187 of them where civilian. This is 51.66% of their kills.
The link oneill is
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/sutton/index.html
Regarding the religious breakdown of those interned; earlier you claimed the Catholics were interned solely because of their religion, if that was the case, then there would not have also been over 100 protestants also locked up without trial.
I ask you oneill, what other criteria did the Police and Army use to intern people?
