Everything Ulster - Election 2005

THE constituency of Strangford is a safe Unionist seat, with a Catholic population of only 15% (the total population being 98,158 in 2001). Iris Robinson of the DUP will be defending the seat she won here with 42.8% of the vote in 2001 (although David McNarry of the UUP was only 2.5% behind on 10.3%). The consituency includes the Ards peninsula as well as Saintfield (part of Down District Council) and parts of Castlereagh District Council.

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I came home from work today to find a number of leaflets to add to my now considerable deluge of election information in preparation for next Thursday's poll. I already had received communication from the Ulster Unionists, DUP and Alliance, today I found information from most of the remaining parties (with the notable exception of the Workers' Party, political component of the official IRA). So what did they all have to say for themselves...?

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SINN Fein today accused PSNI Chief Constable Hugh Orde of "political intervention" when he revealed that his assessment was that the IRA were still recruiting. He said that his current assessment was that they have the "capability" and "capacity" to return to armed struggle. Of course the Daily Ireland (AKA the Völkischer Beobachter) was on the case to stand up for the brave men of Sinn Fein against the evil 'extension of the British state' that Orde leads.

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EAST Antrim is the 2nd smallest constituency by population ( ~15% Catholic) with a 2001 census total of 84,062 people (of which I was one!). It also had one of the lowest turnouts in 2003 with only 56% of the 60,897-strong electorate. Here we see Ulster Unionist incumbent, and MP for 22 years, Roy Beggs attempting to see of a fierce challenge from one of the DUP's big names, Sammy Wilson, who was a hair's breadth away from taking the seat in the 2001 General Election.

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FOYLE is the most populous (105,066 people in 2001) of the 18 constituencies and covers the same area as the district council of Londonderry (which contains the city and a rural area to the south east). It will definitely be one of the more interesting constituencies to watch in this election as, SDLP leader Mark Durkan defends the seat for his party (won convincingly by John Hume in 2001) from Sinn Fein's Mitchel McLaughlin in what is bound to be a tight race.

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CONSTITUENCY of Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble, since 1990, Upper Bann has an electorate of 72,402 from a population of 102,947 (2001 census; 3rd highest in NI). For a seat that is so closely associated with Unionism, Upper Bann has a Catholic population (by community background) of 43%.

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EAST Londonderry has a (largely rural) population of 88,737 with the electorate this year numbering some 58,861. It should be an interesting seat this year, not least due to Sinn Fein, who's friends in the IRA spent 30 years killing protestants and police officers, who are standing a Protestant former RUC reservist, Billy Leonard.

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WEST Belfast is another seat that has a fairly predictable outcome. Sinn Fein's president, Gerry Adams, won the seat in 2001 with a massive 66% of the vote. In 2001, West Belfast had the 2nd youngest population out of all the constituencies, with an average age of 33 and a population of 87,610 (electorate: 59,617), and is also the most Catholic (76% - or 83% by 'community background').

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ONE of the smallest constituencies in Northern Ireland, Mid-Ulster had a 2001 population of 86,496, 63% of whom are Catholic. Martin McGuinness (SF) is the incumbent MP and his seat would seem reasonably safe after receving more than 50% of the vote in 2001. Mid-Ulster is situated along the east coast of Lough Neagh, including parts of Counties Tyrone and Londonderry.

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SOUTH Down is the 2nd biggest constituency, in Northern Ireland, by population with a total of 104,658 (62% of whom are Catholic) in 2001's census. It's unique this year in being home to an outgoing SDLP MP, Eddie McGrady, who is seeking re-election, and it's probably the least likely SDLP seat to fall to Sinn Fein..

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LEAFLETS have been distributed to homes in west Belfast warning ethnic minorities not to talk to the police.

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NORTH Down has the 3rd lowest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland with just 85,992 and a 2001 electorate of 62,212. The outgoing MP is Lady Sylvia Hermon of the Ulster Unionists, who is again contesting the seat. North Down is traditionally a good seat for non-mainstream unionists, presumably because the chances of the seat going to a nationalist candidate are slim with a catholic population of just 9%.

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WEST Tyrone, population: 86,200 (2001 electorate: 60,739), was one of the first seats to spark interest in this election campaign, long before the election was confirmed. Here, independent MLA Dr Kieran Deeney topped the poll in the 2003 Assembly election fighting on the single issue of retaining the hospital in Omagh. Dr Deeney is running again this time round, but his chances of topping the poll are slim.

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THE DUP has launched their manifesto and, again, the BBC have compiled a report. I've used the BBC report on their manifesto, checking a few details in the document itself, to compile my own analysis...

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THE SDLP launched their manifesto yesterday. I haven't been able to get a hold of the document (their website's been a bit screwed today as far as I can tell) but the BBC published a summary report. Let's see what we've got....

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Few conclusions in this year's election in Northern Ireland are more forgone than the result in North Antrim. With the biggest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland, Weighing in with 101,000+ constituents, North Antrim had a 2001 electorate of 74,451. This has been Ian Paisley's seat for 35 years since he was elected MP in 1970 (as an MP of the Protestant Unionist Party, later becoming the DUP) and it doesn't seem likely to change now, in what many believe will be his final election.

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Thanks to Aaron Scullion at Slugger O'Toole for pointing out that the BBC has kept copies of of Party Election Broadcasts*, available to download. With the help of this store, I have followed up on yesterday's post on the Northern Ireland Conservatives. So why should we vote Conservative...?

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The Conservatives are only standing in 3 seats in Northern Ireland - and why should we vote for them since they're so unlikely to win? Well the Northern Ireland Conservatives were allotted a brief Party Election Broadcast last night and here's a summary.

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East Belfast has long been a safe seat for the DUP's Peter Robinson since he was elected in 1979. It's an overwhelmingly Unionist constituency, but includes the nationalist stronghold of the Short Strand. It's the smallest constituency in Northern Ireland, with a population of 79,621 in the 2001 census and a 2001 electorate of 58,455 and 63% turnout. It takes in the eastern quarter of Belfast city council and 9 of the 23 Castlereagh DEAs and is the home of the Alliance's former leader, Lord Alderdice. Issues affecting the local area include planning, in particular the evergrowing number of new apartments, and the expansion of Belfast City Airport.

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HANDS up, we made a mistake. Everything Ulster would like to issue an apology over an article posted yesterday regarding UUP MLA Michael (not Ray) Copeland. I completely misread the source and thanks to a commenter on the site going by the name of Traditional Unionist, have realised my mistake.

Firstly the MLA in question is Michael Copeland, not Ray as originally posted.

He is an MLA for East Belfast, not North Down.

He is not connected with North Down Borough Council, who had their offices searched. Therefore their claim that "no councillor or member of council staff" was involved does not vindicate Mr Copeland (although in fairness we must point out no charges have been brought either at this moment in time). He is currently a councillor on Castlereagh Borough Council.

I will resume my 'wait and see' stance on this issue, and apologise again to EU readers.

beano

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Lagan Valley, constituency of former Ulster Unionist leader Lord Molyneaux, with a population of just a touch over 100,000, is, I predict (and it doesn't take Mystic Meg), a safe unionist seat. With a 2001 electorate of 72,671, it has provided the best result for the Ulster Unionists out of all constituencies in Northern Ireland in recent years, but it's not unlikely that this will change in the 2005 election.

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THERE are 18 days left to polling day on 5th May and between now and then Everything Ulster will bring you daily coverage of one of the 18 Westminster constituencies in Northern Ireland. These should serve as beginners' guides for people unfamiliar with the candidates and are unlikely to cover any particular topic in fine toothed comb type detail.

We begin today with Fermanagh & South Tyrone, currently held by Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew.

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DAVID Trimble has called on voters to back his party and the SDLP to 'reinvigorate' the centre ground of Northern Ireland politics. Since the extreme parties, the DUP and Sinn Fein, became the largest parties in Northern Ireland in 2003, the Assembly has remained suspended.

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The SDLP yesterday made public news that the PSNI have discharged a quarter of all their informers as the result of an intelligence review. Their candidate for West Belfast, Alex Attwood claims this shakeup is "proof that the policing culture of the past is being replaced" and that the SDLP would use their positions on the policing board to ensure there are no more Brian Nelsons.

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IN a new direction for the provisional republican movement, Gerry Adams today claimed that the southern Irish government had no right to meddle in the affairs of Northern Irish politics.

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... at least according to David Burnside, UUP candidate for South Antrim and widely tipped as a potential successor to David Trimble for the leadership. Burnside seems to suggest that his UUP should merge with the DUP.

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HENRY McDonald, the Observer's Ireland corrspeondent, is writing a weekly column in Belfast's new paper, the Daily View. This week he wrote an article attacking the NIO's decision that the Maze/Long Kesh site was the 'only viable option' for Northern Ireland's new national stadium.

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RECENT public declarations by senior (and some not so senior) members of the Ulster Unionist Party that they will be backing Jimmy Spratt and other DUP candidates rather than those from their own party have been seen as the death knell in the coffin of the Ulster Unionist Party. Indeed it's hardly something that can be seen as in any way good. But is it really the end?

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DAVID Trimble said today that there couldn't be executive power sharing with Sinn Fein any time soon. His statement echoed what he said at last months centenary Ulster Unionist AGM:

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APOLOGIES to anyone trying to access Everything Ulster during late morning/early afternoon today. My web hosts had a problem and their domains weren't being found, in short rendering Everything Ulster inaccessible (I know, I was gutted too). Among other things, the clock seems to have reverted back North American Central Time!

But EU is back (hopefully permanently!) and will resume reporting on this election's big stories from its own distinct viewpoint ASAP.

Thanks for baring with me.

WILL the average Joe be able to tell the difference in post-election Northern Ireland, whether the DUP/UU top the Unionist vote, whether Sinn Fein beat the SDLP in the nationalist one, or who wins overall?

My prediciton is no. For all the money and effort spent electioneering, the parties seem to largely ignore the big issues that actually affect people on the ground. What of Belfast and Northern Ireland's ever growing waste problem? What of punishment beatings, as news broke yesterday that the IRA have appointed someone in North Belfast to deal out their own brand of justice to 'anti-social elements' there? What of the fact that the police and the ARA seem petrified of organised crime - only moving in to act once the perpetrators have been ousted from their gang? All these stories were reported in the local press over the weekend.

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CHRISTOPHER Stalford wrote his last article in the Newsletter today. I for one am glad, as I'm not sure I could take much more of his bland column which, for the last couple of weeks during which time I've read it, did little more than regurgitate DUP propaganda. He's so good he could nearly work for Sinn Fein.

Today's column enraged me. He bgins by saying that he's leaving and that apparently the Newsletter is now sufficiently pro-DUP for his liking. Apparently the paper had previously been criticised for only being reperesetnative of pro-agreement, pro-Trimble unionism. Apparently now "all shades of unionist political opinion are given a fair hearing on the pages of this publication". It's obviously just my own misapprehension that caused me to think this morning, as I walked to the shop, how biased towards the DUP the paper has seemed in the past few weeks!! (I only started reading it, in preference to the Belfast Telegraph, in the last few weeks)

He then goes on to give a shamefully inaccurate account of what has happened in Northern Ireland over the last year. Apparently "Sinn Fein/IRA, so used to getting their own way, dictating to unionists and reaping concessions... have been humiliated, exposed and played off the proverbial field by the [DUP]." If you say so Chris!

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IT sounds nuts doesn't it? With their long-standing position being that the Policing Board is just a mask for an unaccountable force for British occupation on the island of Ireland (or something like that). However, that's the story tucked away at the bottom of page 8 of today's Daily View (no website as yet) after it was hinted at in Gerry Adams's "Keynote speech" yesterday.

According to the Daily View, senior IRA members across Belfast have been told that Gerry Adams wants to 'move the process' forward by signing republicans up to the policing system and standing down IRA 'volunteers'. The paper goes on to claim that Adams's mid-Ulster cohort, Martin McGuinness has delivered a similar message to the IRA members in the north west of the province.

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Well what a day. First Gerry says he's got something important to tell us, then Big Ian tries to grab the limelight with another "Never, never, never" type speech (or to paraphrase: "We won't share power with terrorists and we really mean it this time").

Gerry had told us this morning there would be a "keynote speech" and people had been waiting all day to find out what it would be.

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TB announced the dissolution of Parliament yesterday, also signalling the election date for 5th May.

Gerry Adams took the opportunity to announce he's going to make an announcement, and observers are already speculating what that announcement might be.

Paisley seized upon Adams's announcement as an opportunity to show what a good unionist politician he is by claiming his party would never share power with Sinn Fein/IRA terrorists (there's an incentive to disarm if ever I heard one).

Expect a lot more of this flag waving from the DUP and Sinn Fein, while the SDLP and UU run around like headless chickens wondering why people aren't voting for them. To be fair I wonder too, they seem to be the only parties (save the minority of neutrals) able to work together.

UTV have an overview of the battle's in each of the 18 constituencies with details of who's standing and for which party.

The BBC have also launched the Northern Ireland section of their Vote 2005 site.

ANOTHER attempt to DUPe Unionists appeared in today's Newsletter. At the same time as some DUP supporters liberally accuse the Ulster Unionists of arrogance, it was interesting to read Christopher Salford's article, in which he tries to frighten the unionist electorate into voting for his party. He writes a Newsletter article called "DUP are only serious option for unionists." (If that isn't arrogance... what is?)

I beg the question, far from the only serious option - are the DUP a serious option at all?

What Salford is basically saying is "If you don't vote for us, Sinn Fein have won," going on to warn that if voters don't "rally to the DUP" we should "prepare for a very smug Gerry Adams on May 6." I'm well used to the DUP spouting rubbish like this, but what scares me is that suddenly it seems to be working!

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RECENTLY retired PSNI superintendent Barney Fitzpatrick is to stand against Sinn Fein's much publicised former RUC officer, Billy Leonard in Coleraine's Skerries ward in the forthcoming local elections in May.

Fitzpatrick says he is 'astounded' that an ex-colleague would represent a group that has murdered their former colleagues. He points out that the same group has hindered murder investigations (including the recent Robert McCartney case) and provided political cover for the IRA following the Northern Bank raid.

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